Who Wins The Kentucky Derby? (Part I)

The most exciting two minutes in sports is upon us. Saturday is the 152nd edition of the Kentucky Derby.

As has been the norm is the past couple decades there will be a full field of 20 horses running for the honor of wearing the horseshoe-wreath of roses

With that in mind, the Daily Racing Blog will look at this year’s field on three separate days: today we’ll look at horses 1 through 7. Wednesday, entrants 8-14 and on Friday the final six will be profiled.

Okay, here we go:

1. RENEGADE [ML 4-1] Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr. Trainer: Todd Pletcher. Despite drawing the rail, he may still end up being the slight Post-Time favorite, based on two things: his impressive prep victory in the Arkansas Derby and his pedigree. The bay colt was 0-3 as a 2-year-old but came back at age 3 and swept past the field to easily win the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs. He then had a similar sustained rally to romp by four lengths in the 1 1/8-mile Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park. Irad has been aboard this colt since the Remsen Stakes and will need to work out as clean of a trip as possible from the inside post in order to get in good position for a closing rally at the top of the stretch. If he can overcome that unfavorable post, this colt has the talent to give Pletcher his third Kentucky Derby win.

2. ALBUS [ML 30-1] Jockey: Manny Franco. Trainer: Riley Mott. Earned his spot in the Derby by posting an upset win in the Wood Memorial Stakes at Aqueduct. He rallied in the stretch of the 1 1/8-mile Wood to win by 1 ¼ lengths at odds of 12-1, improving to 2-for-2 as a 3-year-old. His finishing time in the Wood Memorial was significantly slower than those of several other Kentucky Derby contenders in their 1 1/8-mile prep races, so he has his work cut out for him in order to score a second consecutive upset come Saturday. Leading New York-based jockey Franco will take the reins on ALBUS for the first time as Jaime Torres, who was aboard in the Wood, will ride the trainer’s other starter, INCREDIBOLT, in the Kentucky Derby. These are the first two Kentucky Derby entrants for Mott, whose father, Bill Mott, won last year’s Derby.

3. INTREPIDO [ML 50-1] Jockey: Hector Berrios. Trainer: Jeff Mullins. He drew into the Derby field April 23rd after STARK CONTRAST withdrew. The promising form INTREPIDO showed at age 2, highlighted by a win in the American Pharoah Stakes at Santa Anita Park, has not developed in two starts this year. He debuted at age 3 with a good 2nd-place finish in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita but then inexplicably finished 4th by 10 lengths in the Santa Anita Derby. He seems to run better when forwardly placed or stalking closely off of the leaders, so given his Post Position look for him to employ such tactics on Saturday.

4. LITMUS TEST [ML 30-1] Jockey: Martin Garcia. Trainer: Bob Baffert. He picked up some support as a Derby prospect last fall and into the winter months with a solid 4th in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and then a win in the Los Alamitos Futurity. He then came back for his first start as a 3-year-old and set the early pace in the 1 1/16-mile Rebel Stakes before losing steam and finishing 3rd. He broke badly in the 1 1/8-mile Arkansas Derby and never threatened, finishing 7th. He’d need a complete turnaround in form to have a chance at finishing in the top four or five in this race. He had his blinkers removed in the Arkansas Derby but will wear them again in the Kentucky Derby.

5. RIGHT TO PARTY [ML 30-1] Jockey: Christopher Elliot. Trainer: Ken McPeek. He earned his way into the Derby by passing horses late in the Wood Memorial and finishing 2nd, 1 ¼ lengths behind ALBUS. That gave him the additional 50 points needed to safely make the Derby field. Prior to his runner-up finish in the 1 1/8-mile Wood, he finished 3rd in the Gotham Stakes, never challenging the top two. The owner of RIGHT TO PARTY paid a $6,000 fee to supplement him to the Triple Crown on April 7th under the guidance of trainer Ken McPeek.

6. COMMANDMENT [ML 6-1] Jockey: Luis Saez. Trainer: Brad Cox. He will get a lot of support from the betting public and will be bet down considerably by Post Time. He comes into the Derby on a four-race winning streak going back to last fall when he won a Maiden race in dominating fashion at Churchill Downs. Since then, he’s reeled off three wins at Gulfstream Park in Florida, the last two being the Fountain of Youth Stakes followed by a very close win in the Florida Derby. He appeared defeated at the top of the stretch in the Florida Derby as he trailed his three main challengers, but he angled outside and grinded out the decision- just the type of thing he needs to do here.

7. DANON BOURBON [ML 20-1] Jockey: Atsuya Nishimura. Trainer: Manabu Ikezoe. Comes into the Kentucky Derby undefeated and could be this year’s wise-guy horse who would provide his home country of Japan with its first Derby winner. In March he qualified for the Derby (via the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby) by winning the Fukuryu Stakes at Nakayama Racecourse. It was a visually impressive effort in which he stalked the pace and finished explosively in the stretch to win going away. This is a big jump in class for him as the competition here is much more formidable than what he faced in Japan.

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