Kentucky Derby Post Positions are scheduled to be randomly assigned tomorrow afternoon (4/25), but their influence on the outcome of the race is far from arbitrary.

The Kentucky Derby has used a starting gate since 1930 and actually (when necessary), it has used two gates. If the field was larger than 14 entrants, an auxiliary gate would be used and could accommodate up to six additional horses.

The auxiliary gate was attached to the outside of the main gate which would allow for the extra horses. That changed in 2020 when Churchill Downs purchased a single gate that holds all 20 horses.

So what Post Position is most favorable in the Run for the Roses? Conventional wisdom says that somewhere in the middle of the gate, positions 5-15, is best.

In recent years, though, there seems to be a trend toward outside posts having more success, due in part to the crowded fields of the last couple of decades.

Since and including 1995, 16 of the 31 Kentucky Derby winners have broken from gate 13 or higher. From the 65 races that used a gate before 1995, just seven winners broke from gate 13 or higher.

Support of this trend toward outside posts comes when you look at the lack of success from inside Post Positions. No horse has won the Kentucky Derby from gate 1 since 1986. Only three horses have won from posts 1, 2, or 3 since that year, and all broke from post 3.

Before 1987, 19 of 174 horses that left gates 1-2-3 won the race, giving the gates a 10.9%-win rate. Since and including 1987, the win rate for posts 1, 2, or 3 is just 2.6% (3-for-117). 

Other interesting Post-Position stats include a 10.4%-win rate for gate 5, which has produced the most Derby winners in the race’s history with 10. 

Gate 10 has also produced a high rate of winners at 10.1%, with horses finishing in the money at a remarkable 29.2%.

And lastly, if the horse you like in the Derby draws gate 17, be warned. No horse has ever won from Post-Position 17 and the last time gate 17 produced a horse that even finished in the top five was 2005.

Maybe this is the year? We’ll have a better idea Saturday afternoon.