If you remember from a previous post we talked about the fun and low-risk of the .10 cent Superfecta. So here once again are a couple of Superfecta plays for Saturday.
We were set to offer a couple of races from Aqueduct as well as Oaklawn Park, but Aqueduct has cancelled its Saturday card due to the weather forecast of extreme low temperatures and high winds. So it will be Oaklawn only.
To remind you; the Superfecta Key Box requires that your keyed horse must finish in one of the top four positions.
And to maximize return we look for three conditions to create potential for a high payoff.
The conditions are:
- Betting interests of at least nine entries but not more than 12
- The ability to confidently key a horse that is not an odds-on or a heavily bet favorite
- Field that has runners seemingly ignored in the pool that would be at very high odds at post time but could be in the top four randomly
OAKLAWN RACE #1: This bottom of the barrel $10,000 claimer at a mile on the dirt for 3-year-olds and up non-Winners of two lifetime brings together 11 colts and geldings including one entry and one Maiden. Two runners are stretching out to this mile distance for the first time and have never contested a route on any surface overall. Speed should be advantageous in this field.
#6 AXSIS has a 100 percent in the money record in five starts at the distance, the most experience in the field, and tactical speed. He is also a Maiden, who clearly is competitive and has not been able to Win. When it comes to the distance, the competition and a Superfecta, he is a solid player and at 8-1 is your key horse.
One of two runners stretching out is #3 AFRICAN WARRIOR who runs evenly and projects to be competitive off his sprints with his off the pace running style. Nine of his 12 lifetime starts are at Oaklawn with a couple of in the money finishes. At 10-1, he could be part of the mix down the stretch.
#9 GRAVES MILL ROAD, coming off the claim and three consecutive in the money finishes at this one mile distance at Canterbury Park will be very tough here and may end up going off as the Post Time favorite as the result of those strong spring and summer efforts. This is his first start since August of last year, and he might need a race, but he should be very close at the end.
#2 CHASE TRACKER, also off the claim, is coming out of six consecutive dirt tries at longer than one mile and he looks like a grinder who will fare better shortening up here. He has some tactical speed and should last for a share.
The final runner in this Superfecta play is #1a CALL OF HONOR, who has the fewest starts in the field with four and has run on turf, dirt and synthetic in those starts. Two were at a mile or longer on the dirt including when he broke his Maiden at Keeneland in a mile and one sixteenth effort.
The Play: $.10 Superfecta Key Box; 6 with 1a, 2, 3 and 9. Total wager: $9.60. Should any of these runners scratch, plug in #8 BEHAVIN MYSELF.
OAKLAWN RACE #2: This six furlong on the dirt claimer for fillies and mares 3-year-olds and up who are non-Winners of two lifetime brings together nine runners who average about six starts each with a nearly 50 percent in the money percentage at the distance and one out of three in the money finishes overall. There is not much speed here, and I anticipate a slow to moderate pace. The advantage should be to horses on or near the lead. This race is very close on paper.
#5 BITTER VIXEN broke her Maiden at seven furlongs in one of her three starts at Churchill. She has tactical speed, and should have something left at the end. She will be very tough here at 9-2 and is your key horse.
#6 CAUGHT LOOKING is off the claim and looks like a great play here at 12-1 if you toss out her last effort. She is nearly as fast as others in her two starts prior to that toss out including one where she broke her Maiden at seven furlongs at Churchill.
#1 NISI PRIUS broke her Maiden in her debut. Her last out was at Oaklawn, where she had some trouble, but still managed to finish 4th. She might be tough here at odds of 6-1 if she runs back to her debut which was run at today’s six furlong distance.
Another runner off the claim is #4 PREMIER WISH, who has two in the money finishes in three starts at this distance, can pass horses, is tractable and could be formidable down the stretch. She looks like the kind of horse who can close or be very close depending upon how the race unfolds. She is 6-1.
The final runner to include in this Superfecta is #9 MONTGOMERY PARK, the probable favorite who ran a very strong 2nd at this distance last out at Oaklawn. She will never be far from the lead, and demonstrated that she would not quit in the stretch having run well in four of her six starts.
The Play: $.10 Superfecta Key Box; 5 with 1, 4, 6 and 9. Total wager: $9.60. Should any of these runners scratch, use #7 HARD STREET.
Good luck, have fun with these, and to our readers in the northeast battling frigid temperatures, perhaps a bit of your favorite bourbon as you watch these races. Stay safe out there.