FOY Picks

Here is a full field analysis for the Fountain of Youth, which is the final race on a card of 14.

It has a scheduled Post Time of 6:10.

1. DRAIN THE CLOCK [ML 5-1] Trainer: Saffie Joseph Jr. Jockey: Edgard Zayas. He is one of the wild cards in the race with an interesting race record and this being his first start beyond seven furlongs. He has Won all four of the races that he completed. He lost his rider in his third career start in a Stake at Delta Downs. He posted two Wins as a 2-year-old and now another two Victories at Gulfstream this year in the Limehouse and the Swale Stakes (G3). His Win in the Swale was by more than six lengths and earned an 85 Beyer. 

2. PRIME FACTOR [ML 5-1] Trainer: Todd Pletcher. Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr. Finished 3rd in the Holy Bull as the even-money favorite. The $900,000 yearling purchase was highly regarded after his nine-length Victory in his debut at Gulfstream going six furlongs. In the Holy Bull, he sat in an excellent stalking position but turning for home he never looked like a threat to Win and could not keep with top two.  

3. SOSOSUBTLE [ML 20-1] Trainer: Armando De La Cerda. Jockey: Paco Lopez. This Florida-bred began his career unsuccessfully on the turf at Gulfstream and then broke his Maiden going a mile against fellow state-breds in January, while adding Lasix. 

4. FIRE AT WILL [ML 7-2] Trainer: Michael Maker. Jockey: Kendrick Carmouche. Another of the wild card horses in the field as he returns to the dirt for the second time in his career. As a turf horse, he is the Winner of the Pilgrim (G2) at Belmont Park and then the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf at odds of 30-1. He was a Winner on a sloppy track at Saratoga when the turf race was moved off the grass. This Derby prep is his 2021 debut. He has had four workouts at Gulfstream on the dirt. 

5. JIRAFALES [ML 20-1] Trainer: Gustavo Delgado. Jockey: Javier Castellano. Was the 5th in the Holy Bull, and never in contention- he was 17 lengths behind the Winner. In his only other start he Won a Maiden race for Florida-breds at Gulfstream Park West

6. KING’S OVATION [ML 15-1] Trainer: Dale Romans. Jockey: Corey Lanerie. He made his 2021 debut in the Swale, where he rallied to finish 2nd despite having traffic trouble in the turn. He broke his Maiden at Churchill Downs last year in his second start. He will go two turns for the first time here.

7. TARANTINO [ML 8-1] Trainer: Rodolphe Brisset. Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione. He ran 2nd for the entire Holy Bull (G3) in his first career start on the dirt after two Wins and a 2nd (in a Stakes Race) on the grass. He was far behind the Winner in the Holy Bull, but to his credit he was almost four lengths ahead of the rest of the field. He will need to take another step forward to contend for the Win.

8. GREATEST HONOUR [ML 9-5] Trainer: Shug McGaughey. Jockey: Jose Ortiz. He was visually impressive in his Win in the Holy Bull (G3), as he blew past the field rallying around the final turn, moving him toward the top of many Derby contender lists. Critics cite that most of the field in the Holy Bull did not perform well. Trainer Shug McGaughey will continue down the same path that he used with ORB to Win the 2013 Kentucky Derby.  

9. TIZ TACT TOE [ML 30-1] Trainer: Robert Hess Jr. Jockey: Rajiv Maragh. Still a Maiden, this gelding was claimed from Barclay Tagg out of his most recent race for $50,000 after running 4th, going a mile on the turf at Gulfstream. He had two Maiden special weight starts on the grass as a 2-year-old with a 4th and a 5th-place finish. 

10. PAPETU [ML 15-1] Trainer: Antonio Sano. Jockey: Junior Alvarado. He ran 4th in the Holy Bull, but was 10 lengths behind GREATEST HONOUR. Running 2nd in the Mucho Macho Man back in January made PAPETU an interesting horse, but he needs a huge progression to be worth considering in the Fountain of Youth

Summary: GREATEST HONOUR enters the Fountain of Youth as the top choice and rightfully so. This field of 10 contains the top five finishers from the Holy Bull, which was run at the same 1 1/16-mile distance just a month ago and the results were not close in any way.

FIRE AT WILL and DRAIN THE CLOCK are the capable new shooters here, and are hard to handicap in this race. But in the FOY, they represent the biggest threats to GREATEST HONOUR.

The talented turf horse FIRE AT WILL could be a Win contender if his grass form translates to the dirt at Gulfstream.

DRAIN THE CLOCK has a great overall record and has Won all three of his starts at the Florida track, but he has never run farther than seven furlongs.

The Play: The Daily Racing Blog believes there is no honor in betting the chalk.

Of course GREATEST HONOUR belongs in all multi-race wagers (Pick 4, Pick 5), heck, you could use him as a single if you feel real strong about him.

But in the FOY we’re looking for some Value, and will try and beat him with FIRE AT WILL and DRAIN THE CLOCK.

We will do a Trifecta key using both FIRE AT WLL and DRAIN THE CLOCK on Top with PRIME FACTOR, TARANTINO, and GREATEST HONOUR underneath. So the ticket will read: 1-4 with 1-2-4-7-8. That wager, for .50 cents will cost $12 dollars.

Best of luck no matter how you play it.

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