Who Wins The Indiana Derby?

The $300,000-dollar, Grade 3 Indiana Derby is Saturday at Horseshoe Indianapolis. The 1 1/16-mile dirt race for 3-year-olds is one of eight Stakes races on the day- all featuring 6 figure purses.

Here is a brief look at the field:

1. LIGHTER [ML 20-1] Jockey: Marcelino Pedroza Jr. Trainer: Rodolphe Brisset. A tough assignment for his Stakes debut. Won his first career start in a three-quarter-mile sprint on this main track but finished a well-beaten 3rd when facing winners for the first time and stretching out to a mile May 31st at Churchill Downs. The average winning speed figure for the last 15 editions of the Indiana Derby is 105- meaning LIGHTER would need a 15-20-point improvement to be competitive.

2. MISTER T [ML 30-1] Jockey: Mitchell Murrill. Trainer: Justin Baily. He owns a pair of Stakes wins on this main track, including a 5 ¼-length runaway win in the one-mile and 70-yard Indiana Futurity to close out his 2-year-old season on a three-race winning streak. Most recently rallied for 2nd June 10th at Horseshoe in a sprint Stakes for Indiana-Breds, but speed figures indicate he would need a breakout race to be in-the-money here.

3. ZIHNAL [ML 12-1] Jockey: Umberto Rispoli. Trainer: Jonathan Thomas. Unraced as a 2-year-old, he earned the first win of his career in his last start with a one-length Maiden special weight victory going one mile and 70 yards June 10th at Horseshoe. A step up in class, he seems suited to improve here but would need to take a sizable step forward to win against these.

4. OUR MONEYMAN [ML 4-1] Jockey: Axel Conception. Trainer: Bret Calhoun. The Louisiana-bred has never finished outside the top three in eight starts and enters the Indiana Derby off a runner-up finish to Grade 1 winner FUTHER ADO in the June 7th Matt Winn Stakes at Churchill. A Stakes-winning sprinter at age 2, he has held his own when stretching out in distance this year and should be considered a win contender.

5. BRICKLIN [ML 8-1] Jockey: Fernando De La Cruz. Trainer: Rodolphe Brisset. Ran 3rd in the Sunland Park Derby in February then finished 4th in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby two back. He’s won twice in his career, including a one-mile race at Oaklawn Park in his season debut, but has been beaten by 5 ¼ lengths or more in each of his four tries in Stakes races.

6. CREOLE CHROME [ML 6-1] Jockey: Junior Alvarado. Trainer: Joe Sharp. Won three of his first four starts, including a 6 ¾-length runaway in the Star Guitar Stakes in February at Fair Grounds. He ran 4th in the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes before a 6th-place finish on Kentucky Derby day in the Pat Day Mile Stakes. He comes off a confidence-building 18-length romp in the Louisiana Legends Cheval Stakes June 6th at Evangeline Downs.

7. OUT OF THE WOODS [ML 9-2] Jockey: Luis Saez. Trainer: Phil D’Amato. Unplaced in his first five starts, including a couple of races on turf, he seems to have figured it out in his last three races — two wins and a 2nd. He won a 1 1/16-mile Allowance race two starts back at Churchill and comes in here off a 2nd-place finish in the $300,000 Delaware Derby June 13th. Look for him to be on or near the lead at the top of the stretch, with a good shot at being the first to cross the wire.

8.LEADING CHANGE [ML 5-1] Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr. Trainer: Brad Cox. Cox has won the Indiana Derby three times, including two of the last three editions, and sends this recent debut winner to Horseshoe for his try at Stakes racing. In his first appearance he dominated a seven-furlong Maiden special weight on June 7th at Churchill and earned a 92 Speed Figure. Jumping from the Maiden ranks to a Graded Stakes is a tough ask, but Cox and Irad Ortiz Jr. win at 30% and this well-bred colt looks fast enough to compete here. 

9. DESERT GATE (SCRATCHED) Jockey: Florent Geroux. Trainer: Bob Baffert.

The Indiana Derby is slated as race 12 on a card of 13 with a scheduled Post Time of 6:40.

Best of luck however you play it.

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