For the third straight year Saratoga Race Course stands in for Belmont Park as the host of the Belmont Stakes.
Running at The Spa means that the third leg of the Triple Crown is run at the shortened distance of 1 ¼ miles.
Horseplayers that follow track trends need to adjust their handicapping accordingly because Belmont Stakes trends (except for the last two years) were developed at the traditional 1 ½-mile distance, which once again will be irrelevant for this year’s race.
Here’s a look at running styles and Post Positions have had the most (and least) success at Saratoga at the distance of 1 ¼ miles.
For this analysis there are 2 apples-to-apples comparisons to look at for the Belmont Stakes run at Saratoga the last two years.
DORNOCH won the 2024 Belmont Stakes from post 6 in a 10-horse field after stalking the pace up close from about 1 ½ lengths off early leader SEIZE THE GREY, who dropped anchor and finished 7th. Every horse that finished in the superfecta that year broke from the outside half of the gate.
In last year’s edition of the Belmont Stakes at Saratoga, SOVEREIGNTY broke from post 2 in an eight-horse field and stalked the pace mid-pack about 2 ½ lengths off the lead. DORNOCH was a 17-1 longshot. SOVEREIGNTY was the 5-2 second choice on the tote board.
The distance of 1 ¼ miles is not a frequently used distance at Saratoga. It is normally used for the Travers Stakes and only a handful of other races, plus the last two Belmont Stakes. That said, looking back at the past 25 years should give us a sample size big enough to draw some conclusions for that distance.
There has been a total of 39 dirt races run at 1 ¼ miles at Saratoga since 2000. The primary track trend that jumps out the most in these races is that closers are an awful bet at the distance. Horses coming from four or more lengths off the pace won only five of the 39 races at the distance since 2000 to account for only 13%.
The best running style has been stalkers, as defined by horses racing between one and four lengths off the pace. Stalkers won 49% of the races (19 wins). Speed horses racing on or close to the pace within a length of the lead have done well, too. They’ve won 15 of the 39 races to account for 38%.
For the speed horses, success has gone hand in hand with Post Positions because almost all of the speed horses that have won at 1 ¼ miles at Saratoga the last 25 years have come from posts 1, 2 or 3. Speed horses from the inside posts have won 15 times at the distance, and 12 of those winners came from posts 1-3.
Perhaps only consider betting a Belmont Stakes speed horse to win if it is starting from one of the inside posts. Post-Position draw doesn’t seem to have a great impact on success for stalkers and closers in the same way it seems to make a difference for speed horses.
Looking at the 1 ¼-mile Post Position stats, 20 of the last 39 races at the distance (51%) have been won by horses breaking from the three inside posts.
Winners from posts 1-3 have far outperformed winners from the middle posts 4-6 (13 wins, 33% of the races) and outside posts 7+ (6 wins, 15%).
On Friday the Daily Racing Blog will take a look at the field for the 2026 Belmont Stakes. So be sure to stop back.
