Who Wins The Santa Anita Derby?

The final three major prep races for the Kentucky Derby are scheduled for Saturday. Each of the three races offers 100 qualifying points to the winner.

The last one scheduled is the $500,000, Grade 1, Santa Anita Derby. Here is a brief look at the field for that contest:

1. CHEROKEE NATION [ML 5-2] Jockey: Florent Geroux. Trainer: Bob Baffert. The light bulb finally went on for him in his sixth lifetime start when he earned a 10-length Maiden win going a mile at Santa Anita with an impressive 103 Speed Figure. Can he repeat that type of effort again against this much better level of competition? On the negative side, however, he has tried two times in the past at the Graded Stakes level, and he finished a non-threatening 5th both times.

2. POTENTE [ML 2-1] Jockey: Juan Hernandez. Trainer: Bob Baffert. He is undefeated in two career starts. With the second time out being a victory in the San Felipe Stakes- his Stakes debut. Although only his third lifetime start, he will benefit from the experience gained from that Stakes victory over this racetrack.

3. VITRUVIAN MAN [ML 15-1] Jockey: Antonio Fresu. Trainer: Doug O’Neil. This late running deep closer is one for five in career starts with the Maiden win coming by a nose at Keeneland going 1 1/16 miles three races ago. He faced winners twice late last year with his best finish coming in a 2nd-place effort on a sloppy track at Churchill Downs. Making his 3-year-old debut here, coming off a three-month layoff in the toughest spot he’s ever entered and he’ll need to improve considerably to run competitively against this field.

4. ROBUSTA [ML 8-1] Jockey: Emisael Jaramillo. Trainer: Doug O’Neil. Ran 2nd by a neck in the Grade 2 San Felipe. Santa Anita’s Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes as a 67-1 longshot. He added blinkers last time out which seemed to spur the major positive form turnaround, and that effort was a poster-boy type of example for how a 3-year-old can dramatically improve on a race-by-race basis at this time of year. Everything about that near-miss performance looked legit and there’s no reason to think it was a total outlier that can’t be repeated.

5. SO HAPPY [ML 7-2] Jockey: Mike Smith. Trainer: Mark Glatt.  He’s already an accomplished Graded Stakes winner, taking the Grade 2 San Vicente Stakes at this track back in early January. His best chance in a spot like this would be to establish a solo lead, slow down the pace, and milk it as long as possible; however, that doesn’t look likely to happen in a race with plenty of other potential speed horses or tactical speed horses entered in the field.

6. START THE RIDE [ML 30-1] Jockey: Armando Ayuso. Trainer: Dan Blacker. He won the $175,000 California Chrome Cal Cup Derby in just his second career start back in mid-January. Unfortunately, he was not able to build upon it last time out in his only race since then when he finished 6th in a seven-horse field behind many of these same horses in the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes. He clearly needs to improve upon his last race.

7. INTREPIDO [ML 7-2] Jockey: Hector Berrios. Trainer: Jeff Mullins. Was a Grade 1 winner as a 2-year-old with a victory in the American Pharoah Stakes at Santa Anita. That race earned him a spot in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile where he finished 5th. Made his 3-year-old debut in the Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis Stakes and ran a solid effort off the bench there to finish 2nd by less than a length. He clearly has the ability to win and hit the board in this race against this field in what will be his second start of the 2026 season.

The Santa Anita Derby is listed as race 10 on a card of 12 with a scheduled Post Time of 7:45 Eastern.

Best of luck however you play it.

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