A Couple Of Aqueduct Superfectas

One main attraction to Superfectas (besides low cost) is that the Superfecta probable payout pool is not displayed, making this bet an unknown endeavor relative to an Exacta.

However, if you observe the pool results over a long period of time, you will come to realize the favorites tend to be over bet in the pool and when outsiders come in especially in the top two positions, explosive payouts might result. 

This is why a .10 cent Superfecta Key is a great leveraged wager.  

The table below summarizes the reduction in your outlays for Superfecta wagers when you Key vs Box your selections.

SUPERFECTA KEY WAGERING SAVINGS

# OF BETTING INTERESTSIN SUPER WAGERBOXKEY$ DIFFERENCE% DIFFERENCE
5$12.00$9.60$2.4020%
6$36.00$24.00$12.0033%
7$84.00$48.00$36.0043%
8$168.00$84.00$84.0050%

It is common betting logic that the box wager makes no sense unless all horses are valued equally by the handicapper. Without getting too technical here, it is obvious if you have a strong opinion on a race, a box of any sort makes little sense.

The Superfecta key box requires you to ensure that your keyed horse must finish in one of the top four positions. To maximize return, we look for three conditions to create potential for a high payoff.

The conditions are:

  • Betting interests of at least nine entries but not more than 12. 
  • The ability to confidently key a horse that is not an odds-on or a heavily bet favorite.
  • Field that has runners seemingly ignored in the pool that would be at very high odds at post time but could be in the top four randomly.

The Saturday card at Aqueduct has two races that meet these conditions, and this how we’re going to play them.

Aqueduct Race 2

A large field is entered for a mile and one sixteenth optional Claiming turf event for state-bred fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up.  There are horses entered who have run at a good number of east coast tracks, and this is not a typical straight N.Y. bred type field where horses raced exclusively at NYRA tracks.

The 8-year-old mare #9 WAR CANOE is our key horse at 6-1. This is a hard hitting horse who makes her presence felt evidenced by a sixty six percent on the turf in the money rate and slightly better percentage at this distance. Suffice to say, this is a very tough older mare. 

#12 MIKE’S GIRL, has three Wins in seven starts at the distance with two additional placings, and has demonstrated the ability to ship and Win including another Victory at Delaware Park. She is a strong Superfecta play at 10-1.

#4 INSTINCTIVE who has seven of ten in the money finishes on turf, and could be a part of the mix here. This runner has been in the top three at four different tracks in her four last outings, and is an attractive 15-1.

#1 MARVELOUS MAUDE, one of two 3-year-olds in the field and the probable Post Time favorite, will/could be part of the first four finishers, and has been in the money all her starts, including one off the turf event. She is not an overwhelming favorite on the morning line, but certainly merits a placing in the Superfecta.

The final entrant is #8 CARA’S DREAMER, the only other 3-year-old in the field besides the #1. She already has seventeen outings, including seven in the money finishes in eleven turf tries. This filly will never be far out of it and does have nice closing kick.

THE PLAY $.10 Superfecta Key Box 9 with 1, 4, 8 and 12. Total wager: $9.60.

Aqueduct Race 4

This starter Allowance one mile dirt event for 3-year-olds and up is comprised of nine runners with fewer than 10 starts each and two who have combined for over fifty starts. 

Given the limited starts of most runners, this race is very unpredictable, and taking a position with some horses who seem like they could surprise is well worth the risk here.

#6 FRENCH TOAST last out was at Churchill Downs finishing 3rd in a large field of ten. This runner fits the profile of a worthwhile longshot to include in the mix at 12-1. He is three of four in the money, and could still show some improvement to move up substantially here. This will be our key horse.

#4 BLU GROTTO showed substantial improvement after a six month layoff when last seen at Belmont in a one mile dirt event in early October. This 3-year-old may be improving at an attractive 8-1.

The likely betting favorite will be #8 NO BURN who has never run a dirt route on a fast track. This runner has a lot of speed, and may be able to dominate on the front end and not look back.

#7 WICKED INDEED is one of the runners who has a good number of races under his belt and finishes in the money about half the time. He looks solid enough to close into a decent pace, and gain a Superfecta placing at 6-1 odds.

The final runner in our Superfecta opportunity is #3 ROYAL REALM, who is three for three in the money at this distance and has room for improvement here. Last out he closed into a soft pace late for a placing and the pace should be much faster here which moves him up with a solid closing kick. He is 6-1.

THE PLAY $.10 Superfecta Key Box 6 with 3, 4, 7 and 8. Total wager: $9.60.

Have some fun with these Superfecta wagers. They’re exciting, inexpensive, and you might pop one. Best of luck no matter how you play it.

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