Breeders’ Cup Value

The 2021 Breeders’ Cup World Championships begin on Friday. The two-day racing festival features tons of exciting racing action, as well as a lot of great betting opportunities.

Daily Racing Blog readers know our mantra when playing the horses; Find the Value. There’s no point in picking the favorite in race after race- that’s usually a losing strategy in the long run.

On the other hand, you don’t want to blindly bet longshots just for the sake of betting longshots. The key is to find horses who you think have a good shot of Winning that will go off at decent prices.

This year’s Breeders’ Cup features some probable heavy favorites. However, there’s still plenty of great betting chances out there, as well as some horses who could pull the upset and cause some BIG payoffs.

Here are a couple of Value plays for Friday’s card, along with some long-shots to keep the action interesting.

BC JUVENILE TURF SPRINT A good portion of the betting public will wager on trainer Wesley Ward‘s two best horses: #6 TWILIGHT GLEAMING and #8 AVERLY. There are a couple of horses here who could spring the upset.

Value Play: #7 ARMOR [ML 6-1] One of several Europeans in the race, he Won the Markel Molecomb Stakes at Goodwood in July. Since then, he’s been no worse than 4th in three group Stakes races in England, including a near-miss in the Juddmonte Middle Park Stakes last out at Newmarket. He’s been keeping company with some of the best 2-year-olds in Europe, and now takes a drop in class (you rarely get to say that at the Breeders’ Cup!) into this spot. If (fingers crossed) he drifts up a bit from his 6-1 Morning Line he’ll be an excellent play.

Live Longshot: #10 TIME TO PARTY [ML 15-1] Flavien Prat is considered by many to be the top turf jockey in the country. It’s not every day that he rides a long-shot in a grass race, but he’ll be aboard TIME TO PARTY, who is likely to go off at an even larger price than his Morning-Line odds. He was a strong-closing 2nd in the Speakeasy Stakes at Santa Anita. Trainer Peter Miller is very good with horses in grass sprints, and Prat hits at 30% when riding Miller’s horses. If you have the budget to use several horses in your multi-race bets, don’t leave this one off your tickets. And if he Wins, then it’s…

BC JUVENILE FILLIES TURF Fourteen (!) 2-year-old fillies will go one mile on the grass in this race. The Morning Line favorite is #1 PIZZA BIANCA, at 5-1. It’s rare to see a Morning-Line favorite at such generous odds. In a race like this, you’ll get decent odds on just about every horse. Value abounds.

Value Play: #7 CONSUMER SPENDING [ML 8-1] Why not go with another horse ridden by Flavien Prat? He teams up with top grass trainer Chad Brown, who has Won this race five times. This filly broke her maiden impressively at Saratoga over the summer and then Won the Selima Stakes at Laurel Park last out with a decisive closing rally. CONSUMER SPENDING improved her speed figure by several points in this year’s Selima. If she takes another step forward Friday she could upset and go off at a decent price.

Live Longshot: #4 TUNERLOOSE [ML 10-1] She was a minor disappointment when losing the Jessamine Stakes at Keeneland as a heavy favorite. She did show early speed before tiring down the stretch and hanging on for 3rd. But in a wide-open race where the Morning Line favorite is 5-1, to get red-hot trainer Brad Cox and jockey Florent Geroux at double digit odds is worth a play.

Best of luck with these and all your wagers. On Friday the Daily Racing Blog will preview Saturday’s Breeders’ Cup Classic.

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