Preakness Is Playable

Here’s what we know about the 2020 Preakness Stakes:

AUTHENTIC, ART COLLECTOR and SWISS SKYDIVER should go off as the top three betting favorites in the race, and deservedly so. They’re probably the three best horses in the Preakness.

Here’s what we know about horse racing:

The best horses in a race don’t always Win and the top three horses in any given race very rarely finish 1st, 2nd, and 3rd.

So why don’t the best horses always Win? A good example is Kentucky Derby Winner AUTHENTIC. It can be argued that TIZ THE LAW is a better all-around horse than AUTHENTIC, yet lost to him in the Derby.

Why?

The best theory might be that AUTHENTIC was simply better on Derby day because he didn’t come into the race off of efforts as taxing as The Belmont, and Travers Stakes which TIZ THE LAW ran in consecutive starts.

AUTHENTIC also came into the Derby with the benefit of an extra two weeks of rest.

Many variables — spacing between races for each horse, a new set of pace dynamics, and Post Positions make this year’s Preakness a unique handicapping puzzle.

It’s now AUTHENTIC who comes in with just four weeks of rest, coming off a peak effort, and there’s a distinct possibility that he’ll attract more pace pressure up front than he faced in the Kentucky Derby.

In the last 10 years, three Post-Time favorites Won the Preakness. They were eventual Triple Crown Winners JUSTIFY (2018) and AMERICAN PHAROAH (2015) as well as 2014 Kentucky Derby Winner CALIFORNIA CHROME.

Last year, the top two favorites finished 6th and 8th.

In 2018, the horses who finished behind JUSTIFY were BRAVAZO at odds of 15-1 and 26-1 TENFOLD.

And not for nothing but the year prior (2017), Kentucky Derby Winner ALWAYS DREAMING finished 3rd… from last, while 13-1 shot CLOUD COMPUTING was at the top of a $2 Trifecta ticket that paid $2,195.

Some naysayers will claim that this year’s Preakness isn’t a great betting race because there appear to be three standouts in the race.

The Daily Racing Blog rebuts those claims arguing that this is a great betting race precisely because there appear to be three standouts in the race.

Which is not to say that AUTHENTIC, ART COLLECTOR, or SWISS SKYDIVER won’t Win the Preakness. But we are willing to wager that at least one or two of that top triad might not finish in the top three.

That said, DRB feels (as always) there is potential Value to be found in playing Exactas and Trifectas.

On Friday the Daily Racing Blog will take a closer look at the field for this years Preakness and try to figure out who to leave in and who to toss, in hopes of building a worthwhile Trifecta ticket.

So stop back and see how your picks hold up against ours.

2 thoughts on “Preakness Is Playable

  1. Correct! Great betting race. Throw Thousand Words into the mix, another front running fireball. Who’s gonna burn out first? Can they all sustain? Can someone sweep in for a big piece? Eagerly waiting your analysis.

    Like

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