The Ogden Phipps @ Belmont

The Ogden Phipps Stakes (G1) will be run on Saturday at a 1 1/16-mile distance.  Which at Belmont Park is around one turn.

As well as the purse of $300,000 dollars, the Phipps is the season’s first Win and You’re In qualifier for the Breeders’ Cup Distaff at Keeneland on November 7th.

Although the field is without the Older Female division superstars MIDNIGHT BISOU and MONOMOY GIRL, all six of the fillies and mares entered are Graded Stakes Winners.

Here then is a full-field analysis, along with Morning Line odds of the Ogden Phipps.  It is Race 9 on a card of 10 with a scheduled Post Time of 5:35.

1. PINK SANDS  [ML 6-1]  Trainer: Shug McGaughey.  Jockey: Jose Ortiz.  She Won her last two starts with late-closing moves this past winter- in the Rampart (G3) and the Inside Information (G2) both at Gulfstream Park.  She returns to her home base  at Belmont Park, and makes her first start in a Grade 1 race off a January layoff.  Lots of early speed in the race will help her cause.   

2.
POINT OF HONOR  [ML 2-1]  Trainer: George Weaver.  Jockey: Javier Castellano.  She Won the Black-Eyed Susan (G2) on Preakness weekend and followed that with 2nd place finishes in two of the biggest Grade 1 races in New York- the Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) and the Alabama (G1).  Most recently,  she was 3rd in the Apple Blossom (G1) after breaking badly, then rallying from 23 lengths behind.   

3. SHE’S A JULIE 
[ML 8-1]  Trainer: Steve Asmussen.  Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr.  As a millionaire earner and past Grade 1 Winner, She brings an outstanding resume to New York for her first start at Belmont Park.  She prefers to be close to the early pace.  This past year she competed extensively against the best in the Older Female division.

4. BLAMED  [ML 10-1]  Trainer: Bill Mott.  Jockey: John Velazquez.  This 5-year-old mare has yet to make a start at Belmont Park.  Among her nine career Victories are the Royal Delta (G3) last year at Gulfstream Park and  in the Comely (G3) at Aqueduct Park as a 3-year-old.   She does her best running while on the lead but will face a lot of competition out front here.     

5. OLLIE’S CANDY 
[ML 8-5]  Trainer: John Sadler.  Jockey: Joel Rosario.  The front-running Winner of the 2019 Clement L. Hirsch (G1) at Santa Anita Park is shipping cross-country for her first start in New York.  She has been versatile in the past and can Win from a stalking position.  All four of her Wins came on the dirt.  Most recently, she had the lead in the Apple Blossom (G1) but was caught right at the wire by CE CE.

6. GOLDEN AWARD 
[ML 7-2]  Trainer: Bill Mott.  Jockey: Junior Alvarado.  This two-time Graded Stakes Winner took the Turn-back the Alarm Handicap (G3) at Aqueduct and the Shuvee (G3) at Saratoga last year while being part of the early pace.  Both of those Wins came at a mile and an eighth around two turns.  She has only one start in 2020, and that was in February on a sloppy track at Gulfstream Park in the Royal Delta when she was 2nd by less than a length.

Summary: The Ogden Phipps drew a small but competitive field of six with four of the fillies and mares showing a preference to race on or near the early pace.  That gives the advantage to the two established closers, POINT OF HONOR and PINK SANDS.

OLLIE’S CANDY is probably the best of the pace pressers and should be there at the wire.  But at Morning Line odds of 8-5 the Daily Racing Blog will look for a little better Value.  So POINT OF HONOR gets the nod here based on her big rally last time out.

The Play:  In multi-race wagers both the #2 and #5 must be used.  In The Ogden Phipps itself, neither of those two Winning the race will bring any Value.  So for a better ROI we’re going to use #1 PINK SANDS in a Trifecta Key on top of the field.

 

Best of luck no matter how you play it.

 

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