The Arkansas Road to the Kentucky Derby is paved with gold. Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs has four Derby points races with total purses equaling $3.75 million dollars.
These rich pay-days along with Derby qualifying points leads to deep and talented fields with compelling 3-year-olds looking for a spot in the gate for the May 2nd Run for the Roses at Churchill Downs.
Sunday the $1 million-dollar Rebel Stakes comes to Oaklawn. The 1 1/16-mile Rebel drew a competitive field of 3-year-olds racing for a total of 105 qualifying points on a 50-25-15-10-5 scale to the top five finishers, virtually guaranteeing a starting spot in the Kentucky Derby to the winner.
Here is a brief look at the field for Sunday’s contest:
1. BRAVARO [SCRATCHED] Jockey: Francisco Arrieta. Trainer: Saffie Joseph Jr. He was also entered in the Fountain of Youth on Saturday at Gulfstream Park and connections chose to stay in Florida.
2. LITMUS TEST [ML 7-2] Jockey: Flavien Prat. Trainer: Bob Baffert. Ships in from California. Last out won the Grade 2 Los Alamitos Futurity. Prior to Los Alamitos he ran 3rd in the Grade 1 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity last fall at Keeneland after which he ran 4th in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Coming here off a two-month layoff for his season debut he owns the fastest speed figures in the race.
3. CLASS PRESIDENT [ML 10-1] Jockey: John Velazquez. Trainer: Todd Pletcher. He stretches out around two turns for the first time after winning a one-turn mile by 3 ¼ lengths in his career debut in December at Gulfstream and then ran 2nd in the seven-furlong Swale Stakes January 31st. Has the pedigree to get the distance but CLASS PRESIDENT must run significantly faster to have a shot to reach the Winner’s Circle.
4. BLACKOUT TIME [ML 8-5] Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr. Trainer: Ken McPeek. Has not raced since finishing 2nd in the Grade 1 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity back in October. Prior to that 2nd-place finish, he romped by 9 ¾ lengths in a one-mile Maiden race at Ellis Park after a runner-up effort in his career debut. Making his first start in 4 ½ months as the 8-5 Morning-Line favorite, seems a very short price for a racehorse coming off that long of a layoff.
5. HONEY’S TO BLAME [ML 20-1] Jockey: Emmanuel Esquivel. Trainer: Ken McPeek. Ran 3rd in a pair of turf races last summer before he earned his first win against fellow Arkansas-breds in a three-quarter-mile dirt sprint in December at Oaklawn Park. He subsequently stepped up in competition to win an open Allowance-optional claiming race going 1 1/16 miles at Oaklawn in February. Another major test in terms of class here as he makes his Stakes debut.
6. STRATEGIC RISK [ML 8-1] Jockey: Javier Castellano. Trainer: Mark Casse. He, inexplicably, flopped in the million-dollar Southwest Stakes finishing 10th for the Hall of Fame trainer. Prior to that race, he seemed to come into his own with two consecutive victories in two-turn dirt races. The second of those wins was his 3-year-old debut in the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn which he won by 4 ½ lengths. Even with a bounce-back effort he will need to boost his speed figure by 10-15 points to have a realistic shot to win the Rebel Stakes.
7. SILENT TACTIC [ML 9-2] Jockey: Cristian Torres. Trainer: Mark Casse. Closed strong to win the Southwest Stakes by 3 ¼ lengths February 6th at this track and 1 1/16-mile distance. That victory at 12-1 odds was a nice improvement from his 2nd-place finish in the Smarty Jones on January 3rd- as he boosted his speed figure by 20 points. This is a short turnaround (23 days) after a career-best performance, so there is a chance he could regress on short rest, but in his third start off a layoff there might still something left in the tank.
8. RANCHO SANTA FE [ML 12-1] Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr. Trainer: Brad Cox. Won both starts as a 2-year-old before being shipped to Oaklawn Park to begin his 3-year-old campaign and Stakes debut in the Smarty Jones. He was not a factor in that race but took a significant step forward in his second start at age 3- he was in the mix in deep stretch of the Southwest Stakes February 6th. He was nosed out for 3rd while earning a new career-high 97 speed figure. The distance shouldn’t be an issue for this son of TAPIT, and he has some tactical speed.
9. TIME FOR MUSIC [ML 30-1] Jockey: Keith Asmussen. Trainer: Steve Asmussen. Most likely to end up with the longest odds in the field. In his only start against Stakes competition he was beaten by 14 ¼ lengths when he ran 9th in a field of 11 in the Remington Springboard Mile December 20th. Most recently lost by 21 lengths at this track and 1 1/16-mile distance in his February 8th season debut. His only win came in a Maiden special weight race sprinting in October at Keeneland. Would need a vast reversal in form and a LOT more speed in order to be heard from.
10. SOLDIER N DIPLOMAT [ML 10-1] Jockey: Jose Ortiz. Trainer: Steve Asmussen. Showed significant improvement when stretching out in distance to a mile in October at Churchill Downs in a nine-length Allowance win. He then led in the stretch of the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes in November at Churchill Downs but ran out of steam late and faded to 3rd place, 2 ¼ lengths behind the winner. He once again led in the stretch in his 3-year-old debut in the Southwest Stakes but could not match strides with winner SILENT TACTIC and finished 2nd by 3 ¼ lengths. He earned a new career-best 97 speed figure in the Southwest and appears to be improving, but he’s been caught in deep stretch twice at 1 1/16 miles.
The Rebel Stakes is listed as race 11 on a card of 12 with a scheduled Post Time of 6:25.
Best of luck however you play it.
