Saturday’s $500,000-dollar Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds is the first race in Churchill Downs Championship Series.
Horses entered in the Risen Star will compete for a total of 105 qualifying points for the May 2nd Kentucky Derby, distributed on a scale of 50-25-15-10-5 to the top five finishers.
It stands to reason that whichever horse wins this race has a very good chance of securing one of 17 spots in the Derby starting gate reserved for North America-based runners.
Here then is a brief look at the field for the 54th edition of the Risen Star:
1. UNIVERSE [ML 8-1] Jockey: Christopher Elliot. Trainer: Ken McPeek. Looking for a rebound effort after finishing 7th of eight in the January 3rd Smarty Jones at Oaklawn as the 2-1 favorite. He ran respectably in three straight Derby preps last fall, finishing 3rd in the Champagne Stakes and then 2nd in both the Street Sense and Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. If UNIVERSE can get back to the speed figures he was running late last year he could factor here.
2. GOLDEN TEMPLE [ML 3-1] Jockey: Jose Ortiz. Trainer: Cherie DeVaux. He’s a deep closer and has 2 wins in 2 starts, both wins coming at Fair Grounds, and he enters the Risen Star off of a win in the track’s most recent Kentucky Derby points race, the January 17th Lecomte Stakes. His pedigree is excellent for stretching out to 1 1/8 miles in the Risen Star. Jockey Jose Ortiz who is currently atop Fair Grounds’ seasonal standings in both wins and earnings makes him even more plausible.
3. CARSON STREET [ML 8-1] Jockey: Ben Curtis. Trainer: Brendan Walsh. Comes into the Risen Star off of a good 3rd-place finish in the Lecomte Stakes. This son of 2007 Kentucky Derby winner STREET SENSE was a 15-1 longshot in the Lecomte and could hit the board again Saturday at good odds. He dominated a 1 1/16-mile Maiden race at Fair Grounds in his start prior to the Lecomte, winning by 11 ¼ lengths on a sloppy track – but the forecast for New Orleans on Saturday shows 0% chance of rain.
4. PALADIN [ML 8-5] Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione. Trainer: Chad Brown. This son of GUN RUNNER ships to Fair Grounds from his winter base in Florida for his 3-year-old debut in the Risen Star. He was one of the standouts among the 2-year-old division in New York last fall. He debuted in a one-mile maiden race at Aqueduct on October 17th, where he finished 2nd by a head to RENEGADE after leading in the stretch but was then moved up to first after that foe was disqualified due to interference. He then stretched out to two turns and 1 1/8 miles in the December 6th Remsen Stakes and showed both class and stamina by out finishing a game RENEGADE and winning by two lengths.
5. CHIP HONCHO [ML 6-1] Jockey: Luis Saez. Trainer: Steve Asmussen. He won the Gun Runner Stakes on December 20th by three-quarters of a length to close out a good juvenile campaign. He then returned for the Lecomte Stakes and ran well after a slow start but settled for a 4th place finish. His pedigree suggests that racing farther than 1 1/16 miles (as he did in both Fair Grounds preps) could be stretching the limits of his stamina.
6. COLT FORTY SEVEN [ML 20-1] Jockey: James Graham. Trainer: Keith Desormeaux. Leads the Risen Star field with eight career starts and might have the highest odds in the field come Post Time. In November, he picked up his first dirt victory in a seven-furlong Claiming race at Churchill Downs, rallying to score by 4 ½ lengths, and followed that with a 4th-place finish at that track when stretching out to 1 1/16 miles. Made his 3-year-old debut January 17th at Fair Grounds in a 1 1/16-mile Allowance-optional claiming race and outran his 22-1 odds to finish 2nd, albeit 5 ½ lengths behind the winner. His speed figures are about 15-20 points below those earned by the top Risen Star contenders.
7. COURTING [ML 6-1] Jockey: John Velazquez. Trainer: Todd Pletcher. This son of CURLIN could be poised for a breakthrough effort when he makes his 3-year-old debut in the Risen Star. He started three times last year at age 2, all in New York, finishing 4th in his debut at one mile in September, easily winning his second start by 2 ½ lengths at the same distance in early November when he faced only three opponents, and then finishing 4th of 11 runners in the 1 1/8-mile Remsen Stakes in December. He’ll face Remsen winner PALADIN again in the Risen Star, and he’ll have to improve his 2025 speed figures by about 10 points to contend on Saturday.
8. QUALITY MISCHIEF [ML 10-1] Jockey: Florent Geroux. Trainer: Brad Cox. Has started in both of Fair Grounds’ previous Derby points races, finishing 4th in the Gun Runner Stakes and then 5th in the Lecomte Stakes. He’s a deep closer with a solid stamina pedigree who should be making up some late ground Saturday, and while he’s got a chance to fill out the bottom portion of exotics with another solid effort, he’d need to reach a higher level of ability to pull the upset.
The Risen Star Stakes is listed as the final race on a card of 12 with a scheduled Post Time of 6:30 EST.
Best of luck however you play it.
