The $7 million Breeders’ Cup Classic is North America’s Thoroughbred Racing Championship event.
The results of the Classic are often the determining factor in which racehorse is honored as Horse of the Year at the Eclipse Awards.
Here is a brief look at the Breeders’ Cup feature race on Saturday:
1. FIERCENESS [ML 5-2] Jockey: John Velazquez. Trainer: Todd Pletcher. When this colt is good, he’s really, really good. Several times in his career, he has unleashed performances that have left the railbirds stunned, and one of those came in his most recent start, a 3 ¼-length tour de force in the Pacific Classic on August 30th at this track and same mile-and-a-quarter distance. FIERCENESS is one of the main win threats in the Classic, with the only question mark being his tendency to put forth a subpar effort every once and a while, including his clunker in the Whitney at Saratoga, two starts back when he finished 5th.
2. BAEZA [ML 10-1] Jockey: Hector Berrios. Trainer: John Shirreffs. Had a career-best performance September 20th in the Pennsylvania Derby at Parx to earn his first Stakes victory. In the 1 1/8-mile PA Derby, he stalked the early pace and powered clear at the top of the stretch to win going away by 2 ¼ lengths. BAEZA earned a career-best 116 Equibase Speed Figure in that race which, if repeated or improved upon in the Classic, gives him a chance to win against an extremely tough field. He has an excellent pedigree for handling a mile and a quarter, and he may finally be putting it all together.
3. NEVADA BEACH [ML 20-1] Jockey: Mike Smith. Trainer: Bob Baffert. Big Money Mike Smith should have him in a forward position in the Classic, not too far behind the dedicated pacesetter CONTRARY THINKING. His pedigree suggests that this colt would be best suited for races at a mile to the mile and an eighth he handled in his final prep.
4. CONTRARY THINKING [ML 50-1] Jockey: Florent Geroux. Trainer: Chad Brown. He is entered in the Breeders’ Cup Classic with one simple assignment: to set a fast pace for SIERRA LEONE– who is a deep closer and as such is dependent on the early times set within a race being fast enough to help him come from behind and pass tiring opponents. CONTRARY THINKING should drop anchor somewhere near the far turn if not before – and then the real running will begin for all the legitimate contenders in the Classic.
5. FOREVER YOUNG [ML 7-2] Jockey: Ryusei Sakai. Trainer: Yoshito Yahagi. This Japanese shipper hasn’t been seen in North America since finishing third in last year’s Classic. Leading into that race, he had already established his reputation as a viable threat to the best U.S. 3-year-olds when nearly winning the 2024 Kentucky Derby. FOREVER YOUNG is a cut below the top Classic contenders this year … but not by much. He’s never finished worse than 3rd, has shown he can handle a mile and a quarter. He might be ready for a top effort in his second start off of the layoff.
6. SOVEREIGNTY [SCRATCHED]
7. SIERRA LEONE [ML 7-2] Jockey: Flavien Prat. Trainer: Chad Brown. Simply put, he’s an elite-caliber runner with a spot-on pedigree for racing a mile and a quarter but is also a one-dimensional closer that relies on a solid pace to set up his charge. As such, co-owner Peter Brant has once again entered the gelding CONTRARY THINKING to act as a rabbit (dedicated pacesetter) with the goal of setting fast early fractions through the first mile or so of the Classic and give SIERRA LEONE a better chance of winning.
8. MINDFRAME [ML 6-1] Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr. Trainer: Todd Pletcher. He has the highest Equibase Speed Figure in the field, yet could be somewhat overlooked come Post Time, perhaps a price in the 6-1 to 8-1. MINDFRAME and jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. were fortunate to avoid serious harm in a gate mishap in the Jockey Club Gold Cup at Saratoga at the end of August. That said, he enters the Classic having not made a competitive start since late June, but he’s been training steadily at Saratoga in recent weeks and already has proved capable of winning after a long layoff (over seven months) in his 2025 debut.
9. JOURNALISM [ML 5-1] Jockey: Jose Ortiz. Trainer: Michael McCarthy. He’s a top-class equine athlete, finishing no worse than 2nd in every start at the Stakes level. This well-bred colt would be a Triple Crown winner were it not for SOVEREIGNTY. JOURNALISM ran 2nd his last out in the Pacific Classic and has been training very well in Southern California since then– whether that’ll good enough to win against this bunch is an open question. The jockey change to Jose Ortiz seems a positive move
10. ANTIQUARIAN [ML 10-1] Jockey: Luis Saez. Trainer: Todd Pletcher. Enters the Classic in career-best form, having tallied his three highest Equibase Speed Figures in his three most recent starts. In his final prep, he won a loaded edition of the 1 ¼-mile Jockey Club Gold Cup at Saratoga on August 31st. This classy, stamina-bred, and consistent racehorse has reached a new level in 2025, and he’ll have to take another step higher to post the upset. Regular rider John Velazquez bounced over to ride FIERCENESS in the Classic, while Luis Saez gets in the irons for the first time on ANTIQUARIAN.
The Breeders’ Cup Classic is slated as race 9 on a card of 12 with a scheduled Post Time of 6:25 Eastern Time.
Best of luck however you play it.
