Who Wins The PA. Derby?

An excellent field of 10 three-year-olds will race 1 1/8 miles at Parx Racing Saturday in the $1 million dollar Pennsylvania Derby (G1).

Three of the entrants competed in one or more legs of the Triple Crown series.

Here is a brief look at the field:

1. SO SANDY [ML 15-1] Jockey: Kendrick Carmouche. Trainer: Cherie DeVaux. Has improved by leaps and bounds in recent starts. Last time out, he ran 2nd by a head to multiple Grade 1 winner CHANCER MCPATRICK in the Curlin Stakes at Saratoga. But his career-best 97 speed rating suggests that he will need another step forward to beat this deep Pennsylvania Derby field.

2. ALTOBELLI [ML 50-1] Jockey: Angel Castillo. Trainer: James Nicholson Jr. With four wins under his belt, he has visited the winner’s circle more often than most of the Pennsylvania Derby entrants. But six straight defeats against easier competition suggest this speedy sprinter will have a tough time challenging at the Grade 1 level.

3. MAGNITUDE [ML 6-1] Jockey: Ben Curtis. Trainer: Steve Asmussen. Earned strong speed ratings of 105 and 104 when leading all the way to win the Risen Star (G2) and Iowa Derby by huge margins. But he’ll need to rebound from a distant 3rd-place finish in the Travers Stakes (G1) if he’s going to best this excellent Pennsylvania Derby field. Cutting back in distance from 1 1/4 miles to 1 1/8 miles should help his cause.

4. DAVE OF ATHENS [ML 12-1] Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione. Trainer: Brendan Walsh. Has yet to compete in a Stakes race, but he’s shown great promise against easier foes. Last out, he obliterated a one-mile Allowance at Ellis Park by 7 1/4 lengths with an impressive 102 peed rating. His fast workouts since then, seem to suggest he’s ready to step up to Grade 1 company and be competitive.

5. HAPPY DELUSIONAL [ML 30-1] Jockey: Paco Lopez. Trainer: Louis Linder Jr. Has shown flashes of talent spanning 11 starts, but he’s yet to finish better than 4th against Stakes competition. Don’t see him breaking through in the Pennsylvania Derby, as it’s his toughest test to date.

6. GOAL ORIENTED [ML 5-2] Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr. Trainer: Bob Baffert. Has made rapid progress since debuting on April 6th. Last time out he almost won the Haskell (G1), battling gamely down the homestretch to finish 3rd by three-quarters of a length. Strong recent workouts suggest he may be capable of another step forward in the Pennsylvania Derby.

7. BIG TRUZZ [ML10-1] Jockey: Javier Castellano. Trainer: Brian Lynch. Earned a powerful 105 speed rating when romping to seven length victory in last month’s Ellis Park Derby. He’s competed respectably at the Grade 1 level in the past, finishing 3rd in the Woody Stephens (G1), so he figures in here and might very well hit the board.

8. BAEZA [ML 2-1] Jockey: Hector Berrios. Trainer: John Shirreffs. He is a serious win contender after finishing 2nd in the Santa Anita Derby (G1), 3rd in the Kentucky Derby (G1), 3rd in the Belmont (G1), and 2nd in the Jim Dandy. The only horses to defeat BAEZA in those races were SOVEREIGNTY and JOURNALISM– easily the top two three-year-olds in the nation. The Pennsylvania Derby is an easier spot by comparison, opening the door for perhaps his first Stakes victory.

9. GOSGER [ML 4-1] Jockey: Luis Saez. Trainer: Brendan Walsh. This Lexington Stakes (G3) winner put up fierce fights against JOURNALISM in the Preakness and Haskell Stakes, finishing 2nd by half a length in both races. In the Haskell, he out dueled GOAL ORIENTED for the 2nd-place finish. GOSGER is a versatile colt capable of excelling with a variety of running styles, and his last two speed ratings (106 and 105) stamp him as a serious contender.

10. MO PLEX [ML 12-1] Jockey: Joseph Ramos. Trainer: Jeremiah Englehart. Has won four stakes since last year, including the Ohio Derby (G3). But he finished 9 1/4 lengths behind BAEZA when 4th in the Jim Dandy, and his career-best 97 speed rating needs to jump up a few rungs in order for him to be to be competitive here.

The Pennsylvania Derby is slated as race 14 on a card of 15 with a scheduled Post Time of 6:00.

Best of luck however you play it.


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