On Saturday Saratoga Race Course will present the 156th edition of the Travers Stakes.

The $1.25 million-dollar Mid-Summer Derby is contested at 1 1/4 miles on the main track. 

Is SOVEREIGNTY poised for victory, or is an upset is in the offing?

Here are five furlongs of historic trends that may help you discern the most likely winner of the Grade 1 Travers:

1. Deep Closers Rarely Win. It’s uncommon for horses who rally from far behind to win the Travers. Only four of the last 15 Travers winners closed from more than 3 1/2 lengths off the lead after half a mile, and 11 of the last 15 winners were racing in the front half of the field at that juncture.

2. Triple Crown Runners Have an Edge. 10 of the last 15 Travers winners competed in at least one leg of the Triple Crown, including the last six. Always favor alumni from the Kentucky Derby, Preakness, and/or Belmont Stakes.

3. Steer Clear Of Haskell Starters. Horses exiting the Grade 1 Haskell Stakes at Monmouth Park rarely take the Travers. The last Haskell starter to win the Travers was KEEN ICE (2015), and the last to win both races was POINT GIVEN (2001).

4. Look To Horses Who Prepped in New York. Eleven of the last 15 Travers winners (73%) prepped with a race in New York, as did 26 of the last 42 trifecta finishers (62%).

The Grade 2 Jim Dandy Stakes at Saratoga has been New York’s leading Travers prep, producing six of the last 15 winners, including five horses who won both races.

5. Favor Horses Who Won Their Last Race. Each of the last nine Travers winners (and 12 of the last 15) won their final prep race.

Given these historical tendencies the Travers winner looks to be… you tell me.