The million dollar Haskell Stakes is Saturday at Monmouth Park.
The Winner of the race gains an automatic berth into the Breeders’ Cup Classic this Fall.
The 1 1/8-mile race for 3-year-olds is expected to draw several accomplished horses, including Triple Crown veteran JOURNALISM.
Using the last 20-plus years of Haskell history as a sample set should help bettors sort through the contenders and determine the most likely Winner.
That said, here are seven trends/tendencies to help Haskell Handicappers:
Tactical Speed Is Beneficial. While pacesetters have Won only three of the last 20 editions of the Haskell (15%), horses racing within 2.5 lengths of the lead after a half-mile have Won 15 of the last 20 editions (75%), so tactical speed typically is an asset.
Mind-Boggling Baffert Numbers. Since 2000, Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert has started 15 horses in the Haskell. Nine of which (60%) finished 1st, five (33%) finished 2nd, and one (7%) finished 3rd. Which tallies up to a perfect 100% in-the-money rate.
Lean Toward Triple Crown Horses. Horses who competed in one or more legs of the Triple Crown perform best in the Haskell. Graduates of the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes have won 16 of the last 20 editions of the Haskell, as well as 25 of the last 30.
A One Mile Win Seems Crucial. Every Haskell Winner since at least 1981 had previously Won a race at one mile or longer.
Stakes Winners Dominate. 44 of the last 45 Haskell Winners had previously Won a stakes race. The lone exception in this sample set is PAYNTER (2012), who entered the Haskell off a close 2nd-place finish in the Belmont Stakes.
Chalk Eaters Buffet. Longshots rarely Win, or even put-up a challenge in the Haskell. Favorites have Won 11 of the last 20 editions (55%). Only five Haskell Winners since 1992 have gone off at odds higher than 9-2 and 52 of the last 60 horses (87%) to record a top-three finish in the Haskell started at single-digit odds.
Favor Distance In The Breeding. Each of the last 16 Haskell Winners was sired by a stallion who competed in a Triple Crown race and/or Won at the Grade 1 level at 1 1/16 miles or longer.
