It’s not news to racing enthusiasts that the Belmont Stakes will once again be ran at Saratoga. Which means it will be contested at the shortened distance of 1 ¼ miles.

Horseplayers that follow track trends need to adjust their handicapping accordingly because Belmont Stakes trends from past editions at Belmont Park– at the race’s traditional 1 ½-mile distance, are rendered insignificant for this year’s race.

Here’s a look at what running styles and Post Positions have the most (and least) relevance at 1 ¼ miles on the Saratoga oval.

The distance of 1 ¼ miles is not a common distance for races at Saratoga. That length is normally contested in the Travers Stakes and a handful of other races

The past 25 years offers a sample size big enough to diagnose which horses have the best chance for Victory at a 1 ¼ in the Belmont @ Saratoga.

There has been a total of 34 dirt races run at 1 ¼ miles at Saratoga since 2000. A big trend on the main track that immediately slaps you in the face is that closers are an awful bet at 1 ¼ miles on the main track at Saratoga.

Horses coming from four or more lengths off the pace Won a total of only four of the 34 races at the 1 ¼ distance to account for Wins in only 11.8% of the races.

The best running style has been stalkers, as defined by horses racing between one and four lengths off the pace. Stalkers have Won 50% of the races (17 Wins). Speed horses racing on or close to the pace within a length of the lead Won 38.2% of the races (13 wins).

For the speed horses, success is married with Post Positions because almost all of the speed horses that have Won at 1 ¼ miles at The Spa the last 25 years have come from Post Positions 1-3. Speed horses from the inside posts have Won 13 times at the distance, and 10 of those came from posts 1-3. So, if a speed horse is to Win the Belmont this year it must, seemingly, draw an inside post to have the best chance.

Overall, 18 of the 34 races have been Won by horses breaking from the three inside posts to account for 52.9% of the races. Winners from posts 1-3 have far outpaced Winners from the middle posts 4-6 (11 Wins, 32.3% of the races) and outside posts 7+ (five Wins, 14.7% of the races).

That said, Post Position doesn’t seem to have a great impact on success for stalkers and closers, it mainly seems to make a difference with speed horses.

There is one equivalent comparison to look at for the Belmont Stakes @ Saratoga from last year’s race; DORNOCH Won last year’s Belmont Stakes from post 6 in a 10-horse field after stalking the pace up close from 1 ½ lengths off the early leader SEIZE THE GREY, who faded to finish 7th.

So, the not-for-nothing takeaway from the 2024 Belmont is- every horse that finished in the superfecta broke from the outside half of the field.

The more you know.