The 150th edition of the Preakness Stakes will not feature Kentucky Derby Winner SOVEREIGNTY. His connections have opted to skip the second jewel of the Triple Crown.

If one were to look back and analyze the last 10-20 years of the Preakness there are some discernable recurring trends/tendencies that can prove to be useful information when trying to identify the likely Winner of the race.

EARLY SPEED: Getting out of the gate and into high gear is an advantage in the Preakness. Six of the last 20 Winners (30%) were leading after the opening half mile, and 16 of the last 20 (80%) were racing in the front half of the field after the opening half mile.

By contrast, only three Preakness Winners in the last 20 years (15%) have come from more than five lengths off the pace after the opening half mile.

KENTUCKY DERBY RUNNERS NO LONGER RULE: For decades, horses coming out of the Kentucky Derby dominated the Preakness. But not so much anymore. Six of the last eight Preakness Winners (including the last five in a row) skipped the Kentucky Derby, signifying the emergence of a new trend in which fresh faces are more likely to Win the second leg of the Triple Crown.

OLD SCHOOL TRAINERS: Hall of Fame trainers Bob Baffert and D. Wayne Lukas transcend the Preakness. Baffert has Won the race a record eight times, four in the last 20 years. Lukas has Won the Preakness seven times, including two of the last 20 editions.

TAKE A SHOT WITH SOME VALUE: Favorites have done well over the last 20 years of Preakness history, Winning six times (30%). But longshots starting at double-digit odds have likewise posted six Wins in the last 20 years, so in any given year you’re as likely to see a major upset as a Winning favorite. And last year’s Winner SEIZE THE GREY was nearly the seventh double-digit Winner with odds of 9-1.

GRADED STAKES RUNNERS, PARTICULARLY WINNERS: 25 of the last 30 Preakness Winners had previously Won a Graded Stakes race. That tally includes 18 horses who had Won at the Grade 1 level prior to the Preakness.

Additionally, the five horses who scored their first Graded Stakes Victory in the Preakness had either finished 2nd at the Grade 1 level or had placed in multiple Graded Stakes. Unproven horses who have never run (or run well) at the Graded Stakes level should garner little consideration for the top spot.

HORSES COMING OFF A DEFEAT: It’s become progressively more common for horses who lost their last outing to bounce back and Win the Preakness. Seven of the last 10 Winners — and 12 of the last 20 — entered the Preakness off a defeat.

Have a look at the field for the 2025 Preakness and see which horses fit any or all these criteria, it might help you narrow down your choice(s).