The 2025 Kentucky Derby is Saturday May 3rd at Churchill Downs.

Up to twenty 3-year-old Thoroughbreds will get loaded into the starting gate with roughly 150,000 fans on hand cheering for their favorite(s).

Approximately two minutes after the jailbreak (gate opening) the horses will begin the cavalry charge down the home stretch and a new Kentucky Derby Winner will be recognized.

With that many lightly raced 3-year-olds jockeying for positioning, facing challenges from other horses, and needing at least some element of luck to emerge Victorious, Kentucky Derby favorites often seem to be in a precarious position.

But in 150 editions of the Kentucky Derby, favorites have Won at a 37.3% rate (56 of 150).

Here then, are five facts on Kentucky Derby favorites:

1. The longest stretch of consecutive Winning favorites is rather recent. From 2013 to 2018 favorites Won six straight editions of the race: 2013 ORB (5-1), 2014 CALIFORNIA CHROME (5-2), 2015 AMERICAN PHAROAH (3-1), 2016 NYQUIST (2-1), 2017 ALWAYS DREAMING (4-1), and 2018 JUSTIFY (3-1).

2. In the six contests since 2018, none of the favorites has Won, although two finished 2nd (TIZ THE LAW, 2020; EPICENTER, 2022) and two finished 3rd (ESSENTIAL QUALITY, 2021; ANGEL OF EMPIRE, 2023).

3. Favorites went a remarkable 20 years without a Win in the Kentucky Derby from 1980 through 1999 before FUSAICHI PEGASUS ended that drought with a Win as the 2-1 top betting choice in 2000. After SPECTACULAR BID Won at odds of 3-5 in 1979, not a single favorite Won in the 1980s or 1990s.

4. Prior to that streak Kentucky Derby favorites fared very well from 1961 to 1979, starting with CARRY BACK’S Win as the 5-2 favorite and ending with SPECTACULAR BID. During those 19 KD’s, favorites amassed nine Wins, five 2nds and three 3rd-place finishes with only a pair of unplaced favorites. That’s 89.5% top-three finishes during a stretch that included Triple Crown sweeps by SECRETARIAT in 1973, SEATTLE SLEW in 1977, and AFFIRMED in 1978. [It’s worth noting that ALYDAR was the 6-5 bettors choice in the 1978 Derby.] 

5. Kentucky Derby favorites have only finished outside the top three 48 times in 150 installments (32%). So, there is a very good chance the betting favorite will at least finish in the top three. That said, KD favorites should be included in your exotic wagers.