It’s been a bit of a dry spell since the Wood Memorial Stakes last produced a Kentucky Derby Winner. Some might even call it a drought.
It was 2003 when FUNNY CIDE ran 2nd in the Wood, (to EMPIRE MAKER) and then went on to Win the Run for the Roses.
That said, does Saturday’s Wood Memorial Winner- RODRIGUEZ have what it takes to make it rain and break the Wood drought?
SPEED: In a one-mile Maiden Win on January 4th RODRIGUEZ produced stellar speed figures, earning a 105 Equibase Speed Figure and a 100 Beyer Speed Figure in just his second start.
He didn’t match those numbers in the Robert B. Lewis and San Felipe Stakes, but in the Wood he bested them both with a 111 Equibase Figure and 101 Beyer Speed, both career-bests.
The Equibase number is the highest for a 3-year-old in a Stakes race in 2025 while the Beyer figure is seven points off the top number earned by a 3-year-old.
RUNNING STYLE: In his previous two Stakes races, RODRIGUEZ was asked to rate off the pace behind stablemates CITIZEN BULL and BARNES in five-horse fields.
He was beaten by 3 ¾ lengths in the Robert B. Lewis and by 11 ¼ lengths in the San Felipe Stakes.
In the Wood RODRIGUEZ went back to the pacesetting tactics that led to his Maiden Win in January. This strategy resulted in a second dominant Win.
As always, there will be plenty of competition for the early lead in the Kentucky Derby, but it seems RODRIGUEZ is most comfortable in front and dictating the tempo.
DERBY PROSPECTIVE: Which RODRIGUEZ shows up in Kentucky? Is it the 3-year-old colt who finished 11 ¼ lengths behind JOURNALISM in the San Felipe Stakes or is it the dominant Winner of the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct?
Perhaps a blend of both. He appears to be a 3-year-old who gains confidence when setting the pace.
Getting to the front in the Kentucky Derby against (potentially) 19 others will be a challenge, and if he does set the pace and faces steady pressure, does he have anything left in the tank for the long stretch run at Churchill Downs?
RODRIGUEZ is trending the right way, and Baffert knows how to have a 3-year-old peaking on the first Saturday in May.
On paper he’s fast enough to be a legitimate Win contender.
What do you think?
