The $750,000-dollar, Wood Memorial Stakes is Saturday at Aqueduct Park.
The weather forecast calls for an 84% chance of rain with the precipitation expected to begin at about 10 a.m.
The Wood is a 1 1/8-mile Kentucky Derby qualifying race that offers points to the top five finishers on a 100-50-25-15-10 scale.
So, the results (on what might very well be a sloppy track) will dictate which horse(s) get a spot in the gate on the first Saturday in May.
The Daily Racing Blog is going to trust in the forecast, that said, let’s look at which runners might benefit from some moisture in the track and identify those that might be compromised by an off track.
One of the best indicators for which horses can handle an off track is past success.
A racehorse who has Won or run fast on a wet track is more likely to excel than a horse who has performed poorly, especially if the track is the same one, they will be competing on.
Only two runners in the field have ever raced on a dirt track that was not listed as fast:
#2 CAPTAIN HOOK– he romped by 9 ¼ lengths on a sloppy track at Aqueduct in December 2024 in his second start. It was a Maiden race, so the level of competition was not what the subsequent Withers Stakes Victor will face in the Wood, but it is a very good sign that he seemed to glory in the sloppy Aqueduct surface and dominated.
#12 OMAHA OMAHA– he ran 3rd behind CAPTAIN COOK in the Withers and 3rd in the Virginia Derby. He also has experience on an off track having Won an Allowance-optional claimer in November 2024 by seven lengths on a track labeled muddy at Laurel Park. All this would seem to indicate that OMAHA OMAHA will not be negatively affected by adverse track conditions. It may even improve his chances.
Another guide used for predicting if horses will or will not thrive on an off track is the Tomlinson rating.
In a race such as the Wood in which 10 of the 12 entrants have no experience on an off track the Tomlinson charts can certainly help.
The Tomlinson ratings strive to make an educated guess how racehorses will handle wet tracks based on performance(s) of the horse’s lineage.
For the Wood Memorial the top five in the Tomlinson ratings (with their scores) are:
#7 GRANDE (410), #2 CAPTAIN HOOK (407), #9 BEAR CLAW NECKLACE (407), TIGER TWENTY FOUR (405), #1 RODRIGUEZ (403), #6 HILL ROAD (402).
Ratings like these are not as strong an indicator of aptitude as previous experience, indicated by OMAHA OMAHA who was second to last in the ratings with a score of 350.
Best of luck with all the prep races this weekend….and Tuesday.
