Who Wins The Florida Derby?

Saturday is the last of Gulfstream Park’s Kentucky Derby prep races.

The million dollar Florida Derby will award KD qualifying points to the first five finishers on a 100-50-25-15-10 scale.

Here is a brief look at the field of ten for this year’s event:

1. NEOEQUOS [ML 10-1] Jockey: Edgar Zayas. Trainer: Saffie Joseph Jr.  This colt has flown under the radar on the 2025 Kentucky Derby trail but has been quietly consistent. Trainer Joseph Won this race in 2022 with WHITE ABARRIO so he knows what it takes to compete here. NEOEQUOS should challenge for the lead from the inside post and is swift enough to be in the mix in the stretch. A top-two finish would lock up a spot in the Kentucky Derby.

2. COOL INTENTIONS [ML 20-1] Jockey: Javier Castellano. Trainer: Jorge Delgado. Closed out his 2-year-old season with back-to-back Wins at Gulfstream Park but that success did not carry over into his 3-year-old debut. COOL INTENTIONS finished 5th in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes, 8 ¼ lengths behind Winner GUNS LOADED. Florida Derby history indicates he would have to improve his career-best speed figure by 10-15 points to be a contender for the Win.

3. SMOKEN BOY [ML 30-1] Jockey: Edgar Perez. Trainer: Cheryl Winebaugh. A $70,000 dollar claimer, his last out was a 6th-place finish in which he was beaten by 13 lengths in a 1 1/8-mile race February 27th at Gulfstream Park. Prior to that race, SMOKEN BOY ran 8th in the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs finishing 19 ½ lengths behind JOHN HANCOCK. If there is an upside, he was sired by CATHOLIC BOY.

4. DISRUPTOR [ML 4-1] Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr. Trainer: Todd Pletcher. This lightly raced GUN RUNNER colt is taking a massive leap in terms of class from a Maiden race, to a Grade 1 Kentucky Derby qualifying race with a $1 million purse. The jump in class is one thing, but his connections are also asking DISRUPTER to stretch out in distance a quarter-mile longer than he has ever raced. He’s fast enough to be a Win contender but this is a tough assignment.

5. INDECISIVENESS [ML 30-1] Jockey: Jorge Ruiz. Trainer: Ruben Sierra. He is winless in three starts since a half-length Victory in his career debut in November 2024- a sprint race at Gulfstream Park. He enters the Florida Derby off a 3rd-place finish at 53-1 odds in the 1 1/16-mile Allowance-optional claiming race February 27th. INDECISIVENESS would need to improve his speed figure by about 20 points to be a Win candidate in this field on Saturday.

6. JIMMY’S DAILYS [ML 12-1] Jockey: Joel Rosario. Trainer: Brian Lynch. After a meh beginning as a 2-year-old, he opened this season with a Victory going seven-eighths of a mile January 25th at Gulfstream Park. Next up he tried an Allowance-optional claiming race at 1 1/8 miles. Sent off as the 2-1 second betting choice, and finished 2nd to the favorite GRANDE. JIMMY’S DAILYS seems likely to improve off that race, considering he was stretching out an extra quarter-mile in his first try around two turns, and improve he must in order to be a serious player in his Stakes debut.

7. ENTERADRAGON [ML 30-1] Jockey: Dylan Davis. Trainer: Jose D’Angelo. Having raced on both turf and dirt he has raced twice on the main track with a Maiden Win in September at Gulfstream in a race originally scheduled for the grass that was moved to the main track because of rain. ENTERADRAGON then finished 5th on dirt in the Aventura Stakes and was switched back to turf for his next five races. This is an aggressive spot for a return to the main track.

8. MADAKET ROAD [ML 7-2] Jockey: Mike Smith. Trainer: Bob Baffert. Finished 3rd behind CITIZEN BULL in his 3-year-old debut in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes and then ran 2nd to COAL BATTLE in the $1.25 million dollar Rebel Stakes. The blinkers are coming off MADAKET ROAD on Saturday which is usually a very positive sign for a 3-year-old. A top-three finish would lock up a spot in the Kentucky Derby for him.

9. TAPPAN STREET [ML 5-1] Jockey: Luis Saez. Trainer: Brad Cox. This a quality 3-year-old with potential to improve who could slip under the betting-public radar. He Won his debut on December 29th in a sprint at Gulfstream Park and then was tested in the Holy Bull and led in the stretch before fading to finish 2nd to BURNHAM SQUARE. His speed figures indicate TAPPAN STREET can hang with this bunch and with some moderate improvement he would be a viable Win contender.

10. SOVEREIGNTY [ML 8-5] Jockey: Manny Franco. Trainer: Bill Mott. In his final start as a 2-year-old he easily Won the Street Sense Stakes. On March 1st (after a four month layoff) he went from last-to-first rally to Win the Fountain Of Youth Stakes. SOVEREIGNTY has shown the ability to finish very fast in his races and he could be even better in his second race back after that long break. He will have his work cut out for him breaking from the outside post in a 10-horse field, but because he prefers to race well off the pace, so there is a chance to get the rail and not lose too much ground on the first turn.

The 73rd edition of the Florida Derby is slated as the last race on a card of 14 with a scheduled Post Time of 6:45.

Best of luck however you play it.

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