One of the two premier prep races for the Kentucky Derby on Saturday is the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park.
The 1 1/8-mile contest has been very influential on the Triple Crown trail this century.
Several horses have exited this race and gone on to star in the Kentucky Derby, Preakness, and Belmont Stakes.
Most notably is 2015 Triple Crown Winner AMERICAN PHAROAH as well as last year’s 150th Derby Winner, MYSTIK DAN.
The Arkansas Derby offers a rich purse of $1.5 million dollars as well as qualifying points to the Kentucky Derby to the first five finishers doled out on a 100-50-25-15-10 basis.
Here then is brief look at the field.
1. BRERETON’S BAYTOWM [ML 30-1] Jockey: Marshall Mendez. Trainer: Paul McEntee. This gelding’s last out was an 8th place finish in a field of 13 in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn in late February. His two prior Wins came in low-purse races at Charles Town and Laurel Park and his career-best speed figure of 86 (earned in the Rebel) is 15-20 points lower than what will be required to Win the Arkansas Derby based on the history of the race.
2. FIRST DIVISION [ML 20-1] Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr. Trainer: Ken McPeek. This son of 2019 Arkansas Derby Winner OMAHA BEACH would need a perfect storm of a career-best effort plus lackluster efforts by the top contenders in order to Win. FIRST DIVISION has made all three of his career starts at Oaklawn Park, Winning his debut in January sprinting six furlongs and then finishing 3rd and most recently 2nd in 1 1/16-mile Allowance-optional claiming races.
3. PUBLISHER [ML 6-1] Jockey: Flavien Prat. Trainer: Steve Asmussen. Despite remaining a maiden PUBLISHER is making his third consecutive start in a Kentucky Derby points race at Oaklawn Park. He finished 7th of nine in the 1 1/16-mile Southwest Stakes as a 54-1 longshot and experienced an extremely rough trip. He then improved to get up for 4th, defeated by 3 ¾ lengths, in the Rebel Stakes at the same distance. He endured some traffic trouble when rallying in the Rebel, and as a result will be fitted with blinkers for the Arkansas Derby.
4. BESTFRIENDROCKET [ML 20-1] Jockey: Nil Juarez. Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas. This son of CURLIN has had an interesting career path through six starts. He’s had three different before finally getting together with Lukas this winter. He’s got a pedigree suited for Triple Crown-distance races, but he’ll need to improve his career-top speed figure (set in an Oaklawn Win) by about 10 points to have a chance at an Arkansas Derby upset.
5. SPEED KING [ML 15-1] Jockey: Rafael Bejarano. Trainer: Ron Moquett. In his first three career starts he set the early pace and was rewarded with two Wins, including in the 1 1/16-mile Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park, along with a close runner-up finish to COAL BATTLE last December in the Remington Springboard Mile. But, last out in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn, he raced 4th early and then faded to finish 10th of 13 runners and 15 lengths behind COAL BATTLE.
6. SANDMAN [ML 3-1] Jockey: Jose Ortiz. Trainer: Mark Casse. He will make his eighth career start here and he shapes up as one of the more consistent contenders on the Kentucky Derby leaderboard. This son of TAPIT was purchased for $1.2 million as a 2-year-old and Won his second career start last summer at the prestigious Saratoga meet. SANDMAN already has 29 qualifying points for the Kentucky Derby, so a 3rd-place finish (or better) should punch his ticket to Louisville.
7. MONET’S MAGIC [ML 20-1] Jockey: Luan Machado. Trainer: Ben Colebrook. Since shipping to Oaklawn Park from Kentucky last December, MONET’S MAGIC has held his own in two starts despite having traffic trouble each time, Winning by a half-length in a one-mile Allowance-optional claiming race and then outperforming his 44-1 Post-Time odds to finish 5th of nine in the Southwest Stakes. His top speed figures are about 10-12 points lower than the historical standard for Arkansas Derby Winners.
8. COAL BATTLE [ML 7-2] Jockey: Juan Vargas. Trainer: Lonnie Briley. A blue-collar hero kinda racehorse who in the past three months has reeled off commanding Wins in two Oaklawn Park, Kentucky Derby points races- the Smarty Jones and Rebel Stakes. These Victories secured his position as one of 20 possible starting-gate contenders in the Run for the Roses. Since he’s safely in the Derby, there’s little pressure for COAL BATTLE Saturday, but he’s been for too consistent (a perfect 5-for-5 on dirt) to expect anything less than a top-three finish.
9. CORNUCOPIAN [ML 7-5] Jockey: John Velazquez. Trainer: Bob Baffert. Everyone will be watching this Derby buzz horse when the Arkansas Derby gates spring open Saturday. Talk about being ambitiously placed – he’ll be making his second career start in a 1 1/8-mile Grade 1 Kentucky Derby prep after Winning a sprint race five weeks ago. But, CORNUCOPIAN has the look of a colt that will crave racing around two turns (he’s got an excellent pedigree for stamina). Nevertheless, moving up to this high level off of only one race is challenging.
The 89th edition of the Arkansas Derby is slated as race 13 on a large card of 14 with a scheduled Post Time of 7:50.
Good luck however you play it.
