Who Wins The Tampa Bay Derby?

Tampa Bays Downs has its marquee Kentucky Derby prep race Saturday.

Seven 3-year-old colts are entered to compete for a total of 105 Derby points in the 45th running of the $400,000 dollar Tampa Bay Derby.

The 1 1/16-mile race distributes points on a 50-25-15-10-5 basis to its top five finishers. Here is a brief look at the field:

1. OWEN ALMIGHTY [ML 5-1] Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr. Trainer: Brian Lynch. His last out was on this track in the 1 1/16-mile Sam F. Davis Stakes where he finished 2nd by a half-length to JOHN HANCOCK. OWEN ALMIGHTY should be among the early leaders in the Tampa Bay Derby along with BRODEUR and PATCH ADAMS. His experience on Tampa’s surface could give him the advantage.

2. CHANCER McPATRICK [ML 8-5] Jockey: Flavien Prat. Trainer: Chad Brown. This talented colt makes his much-anticipated 3-year-old debut Saturday after missing time over the winter recovering from minor ankle surgery. He was one of the best of his age group last summer and fall, Winning two Grade 1 races for 2-year-olds, the seven-furlong Hopeful Stakes at Saratoga and then the one-turn mile Champagne Stakes at Aqueduct. He was the second betting choice in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Del Mar, but he disappointed in his first try at two turns. He has added blinkers Saturday which should help his focus after the lay-off.

3. HILL ROAD [ML 4-1] Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione. Trainer: Chad Brown. This son of QUALITY ROAD is also making his 3-year-old debut with new trainer Chad Brown. He was a 69-1 longshot in the BC Juvenile at Del Mar, shipping in from England but he outran those odds by a wide margin as he rallied  for 3rd place behind Winner CITZEN BULL and runner-up GAMING. Look for HILL ROAD to be running late in the stretch with a chance to fill out the trifecta once again in a big-time race.

4. BRODEUR [ML 15-1] Jockey: Jose Ortiz. Trainer: Mark Casse. Only horse in the field without previous Stakes experience, so he’ll be testing his ability at a higher level Saturday; regardless, he enters off of two consecutive Wins and showed some grit determination in both. But this son of NYQUIST will need to up his game Saturday as he faces a solid field. Look for first-time rider Ortiz to put BRODEUR on the early lead.

5. FILOSO [ML 15-1] Jockey: Dylan Davis. Trainer: Chad Summers. The TBD is his 3-year-old coming-out party as well.  Based on his running style and speed figures, FILOSO is up against it in the Tampa Bay Derby; on the positive side, he’s been training well in south Florida for this race. Perhaps another plus is that FILOSO will be reunited with Dylan Davis, who rode him in his first two starts last summer at Saratoga, including his Win in a one-mile Maiden race.

6. NAUGHTY RASCAL [ML 20-1] Jockey: Samy Camacho. Trainer: Gerald Bennett. The most experienced Tampa Bay Derby entrant with seven career starts, and he’s tallied four Wins. Three of them came last year during a productive 2-year-old campaign, including Stakes Wins sprinting six furlongs on dirt and routing one mile on turf. His pedigree doesn’t scream route races, but on the upside, NAUGHTY RASCAL will have Tampa Bay Downs mainstay jockey Samy Camacho for the first time Saturday- Camacho memorably Won the 2020 Tampa Bay Derby aboard 49-1 longshot KING GUILLERMO.

7. PATCH ADAMS [ML 2-1] Jockey: Florent Geroux. Trainer: Brad Cox. Because CHANCER McPATRICK is here will be the only reason PATCH ADAMS doesn’t go off as the Post Time favorite. His Speed Figures are competitive with the other Tampa Bay Derby starters, and his winning figure of 113 from last November at Churchill Downs is 14 points higher than the next-best figure in the field. If he can improve in his second try in a route and on a track that has a reputation as being difficult to handle for horses that race on it for the first time, PATCH ADAMS has a good chance of getting right back on the Kentucky Derby trail with a Victory.

The Tampa Bay Derby is slated as race 11 on a card of 12 with a scheduled Post Time of 5:35.

Best of luck however you play it.

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