Saturday’s Florida Derby is a vital prep race that will earn 100 points for the Winner, thus guaranteeing a spot in the Kentucky Derby (normally, between 45 and 50 points is enough to get into the field).

The Florida Derby features FIERCENESS, the Eclipse Award-Winning 2-year-old of 2023.

Since last August, when he Won his first career start at Saratoga by over 11 lengths, it has seemed he could be the most talented horse in his age group.

FIERCENESS’ profile is perplexing, mixing two great races with two troubled trips where he just couldn’t get the job done.

After his race at Saratoga, his trip in the Champagne Stakes at Aqueduct was simply horrible.

The chart notes show that he lunged at the start, was jostled by two horses, and had an incredibly wide and tiring trip on a sloppy track that led to him finishing 7th.

After that performance, many expected he wouldn’t go on to the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, he ended up entering that race and blowing away the field by over six lengths.

FIERCENESS’ first start of 2024, however, was another troubled trip. In the Holy Bull Stakes, he had his head turned at the start and then was pinballed between two horses. He was rushed into contention with a wide trip the whole way around and finished a tired third, losing by 3 ½ lengths.

After the Holy Bull, trainer Todd Pletcher said that he would monitor his training to determine if FIERCENESS would move on to the Florida Derby and possibly, the Kentucky Derby.

His training since then has been outstanding, and he is the 8/5 morning line favorite for the Florida Derby in a field of 11. But the questions about FIERCENESS persist.

This field is the largest he has ever run in, and he may have to follow up his race at Gulfstream with an effort against a 20-horse field on the first Saturday in May.

One of the oldest general truths in the sport is that great horses figure out a way to overcome problems in a race.

If traffic problems have been connected to his two losses, he now must prove that with maturity, he can overcome them.

The road to the Kentucky Derby has its share of potholes and pitfalls. FIERCENESS’ journey continues on Saturday. Here’s hoping for a smooth trip.