The 2024 Risen Star has drawn a deep 12-horse field with local runners squaring off against out-of-state challengers.
It’s shaping up as a challenging race to handicap but a fun Stakes to bet.
Looking at the past 15 years of Risen Star results, you can glean some tips and trends to guide your handicapping:
Pace Advantage Typical of most U.S. dirt racing, the Risen Star is no different and tends to favor horses with early speed. Six of the last seven Winners raced in 1st, 2nd, or 3rd after the opening half-mile, while 11 of the last 16 Winners raced in the top four after half a mile.
Upset Special Only three of the last 16 Risen Star favorites have made it to the Winner’s Circle, a 19% Win rate that ranks below the usual expected outcome for favorites. Don’t be afraid to play longshots in the Risen Star.
Horses For Courses Horses exiting races at Fair Grounds have done well defending their home turf in the Risen Star, claiming eight of the last 16 contests. Seven of the locally based Winners previously ran in the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds.
Class Counts The Risen Star hasn’t been kind to untested horses stepping up in class. Fifteen of the last 16 Risen Star Winners had previously competed in a Stakes race, and 13 of them had previously run in a Graded Stakes. The lone exception to the Stakes rule was MODERNIST, a Maiden race Winner who took the slower of two Risen Star divisions in 2020.
Good Form Is A Good Omen If you’re going for the gold in the Risen Star, it helps if you’re entering with a strong recent race under your belt. Fifteen of the last 16 Risen Star Winners prepped with a race in January or February, and all 15 finished in the top four in their prep run. The only horse to defy this trend was future Horse of the Year GUN RUNNER, who Won the Risen Star in his season debut.
Geroux In A Groove Florent Geroux has been one of the most successful jockeys at Fair Grounds in recent years, and his impressive record in the Risen Star reflects this success. Since 2016, Geroux has Won the Risen Star three times, suggesting perhaps, that bettors should make note whenever Geroux has a mount.
Bet On Brad Two-time Eclipse Award-Winning trainer Brad Cox has saddled three of the last five Risen Star Winners. Cox colts are dangerous in the Risen Star and should not be underestimated.
