Slanting the odds in your favor
To increase the odds in your favor you have to be able to spot Value where others cannot. And you will have to single (play one horse only) in some races to make sure the cost of the ticket(s) is not out of your price range. To beat the syndicate players, (multiple bettors pooling their money) who will often take all horses in many legs of the Pick 6 races, you are going to have to find value where they cannot.
The toughest decisions you will have to make to make when playing the Pick 6 will be determining which horses you can confidently single. If you can’t find any singles in the Pick 6 you are probably better off not playing it. If you don’t feel strongly about any horse in the Pick 6, why would you spend hundreds or even thousands of dollars?
On the other hand, if you really like an 8-1 shot in a wide-open race and you feel you can single that horse, you may have found just the edge you need. Many bettors will take numerous horses in a wide-open race, leaving them weak in other legs of the Pick 6.
Your high-value single allows you to take more horses in races where your fellow bettors will be weak. Simply put, if you can get your non-favored single home in a race where others have used multiple horses – you have a substantial edge.
You may also find you that have to single a 3-5 shot in one race, simply because the horse is so much the best. But while almost every Pick 6 bettor is likely to have the 3-5 single when it Wins (and you should too), few will single an 8-1 shot on their ticket.
Also, if you see a race in which you really dislike a morning-line favorite, play against the horse. Don’t let the morning line persuade you to throw in bad horses. If you handicap the race and think the horse looks solid at even-money that’s fine.
If you handicap the race and determine the horse’s chances of Winning to be more like 6-1, take a stand against the horse with your value selection(s). A losing even-money shot will knock out Pick 6 bettors in droves.
Your Pick 6 ticket should also include some longs-shots- these are the horses that trigger the massive payoffs. Too many bettors let the morning line influence their selections and dismiss horses listed at long odds.
Every horse should be looked at in detail for a number of angles such as blinkers on, blinkers off, 1st and 2nd time Lasix, Winning trainer patterns, lone speed, sharp shippers, turf to dirt, track biases, post positions, speed or turf pedigrees, etc.
These angle plays produce numerous Pick 6 Winners that many bettors either miss due to sloppy handicapping or dismiss due to the high morning- line odds.
Also, try not to single any horse that is coming into the race off a layoff of six months or longer. Very few trainers can have these types of horses ready to Win (even though they think they can), and these horses will inevitably cave in the stretch with all your money riding on them in the last leg of the Pick 6.
Winning the .20 cent Pick 6 for under $40
An example of a playable .20 cent Pick 6 ticket that comes in under $40 would be as follows:
In the first leg you like three horses – #1 (at odds of 5-1), #4 (2-1) and #8 (3-1)
In the second leg, you like the heavy favorite – #2 (4-5)
In the third leg, you like two horses and not the favorite – #6 (12-1) and #7 (3-1)
In the fourth leg, you like a turf to dirt horse with speed against the even-money favorite – #4 (8-1)
In the fifth race, you like two logical horses and a blinkers off horse – #1 (2-1) #3 (4-1), #9 (18-1)
In the last leg, a wide-open Maiden Claiming race, you take all 10 horses in the race.
Your .20 cent Pick 6 wheel ticket would appear as:
1,4,8 with 2 with 6,7 with 4 with 1,3,9 with All (10)
Number of combinations = 3 x 1 x 2 x 1 x 3 x All (10) = $36 dollars.
Friday the Daily Racing Blog will take a look at the Grade 1, million dollar WoodBine Mile. So stop back.