Will the Belmont Racing Festival finale (Belmont Stakes) be a chalk fest ? We at the Daily Racing Blog are betting it won’t be. The Belmont is usually a very lucrative race. Favorites don’t fare well here. Only three Post Time favorites in the last 15 years have Won the race, and only five favorites have hit the board.
Winning the 2002 edition, SAVARA paid a whopping $142.50 for a two dollar wager. Even after tossing that bomb out of the equation, the average Win ticket over that same 15 year period is $39.00. The lowest Trifecta pay-out in that time frame was $67.50 in 2003 when EMPIRE MAKER prevailed in a six horse field.
There is no denying that TACITUS (9-5) and WAR OF WILL (2-1) are the two best horses in this field of ten. But to make a wager keying either one on top will offer no Value, no bang for your buck, a lousy return on investment. And regular readers of DRB know that’s not how we roll.
Our A Group consists of what we feel are the strongest Win Contenders, and they are: #9 WAR OF WILL, #10 TACITUS, #6 SPINOFF, and #8 INTREPID HEART.
In Group B are horses we feel could hit the board and round out our exotic wagers: #3 MASTER FENCER, #4 TAX, and #7 SIR WINSTON.
We have already reasoned that #9 and #10 will offer no Value on top. So we’ll do a Trifecta key with both the #6 and #8 on top of the 3-4-7-9-10. Along with a four horse Exacta box using 6-8-9-10, with the hope that the favorites don’t run first and second.
If the betting public disregards WAR OF WILL such as they did at the Preakness, and we catch him at 4-1 odds, we’ll do the same play as above but with him as the key horse.
DRB will certainly use TACITUS and WAR OF WILL in multiple-race Wagers such as Pick 3’s and Pick 4’s, so as not to get totally burned if either runs to form and Wins the race.
Have fun, and good luck no matter how you play it.