Derby Field Part II

Here is the second half of the field of twenty for the 2019 Kentucky Derby.  Again, the horses are listed in descending order of the qualifying points they earned throughout the Prep Race season.  Actual Post Positions will be drawn Tuesday morning.

11)  IMPROBABLE  ML 10-1  He’s had two starts and two second-place finishes for this year.  Both were close finishes at Oaklawn Park.  This Bob Baffert trained colt will carry the biggest odds of his career, and that will make his backers very happy.  Baffert put blinkers on IMPROBABLE in the Arkansas Derby but doesn’t plan to use the equipment again at Churchill Downs.  Jockey Irad Ortiz will replace his brother, Jose, who has opted to ride TACITUSWin Contender


12)  WAR OF WILL  ML 20-1  Going into the Louisiana Derby this guy was the buzz horse, showing everything you want from a Derby Contender: tactical speed and a turn of foot down the stretch.  He won the Lecomte (G3) and Risen Star Stakes (G2) in fine fashion.  Then came his bizarre start in the  Louisiana Derby when he sustained a minor injury.  He is reported to be training lights out… Quality horse with too many questions regarding his fitness.  Tough call.  Toss 

13)  LONG RANGE TODDY  ML 30-1  Steve Asmussen trained horses always seem to improve as they race more.  This one is no exception.  He defeated Improbable in the Rebel Stakes as one of his four career victories.  The added distance does him no favors here.  Toss

14)  TAX  ML 30-1  His connections ran him in a $30,000 Claiming Race at Churchill Downs last year.  He was second best in the Wood Memorial, but the water gets much deeper and tougher to navigate in the first jewel of the Triple Crown.  He’ll offer a lot of Value, but you can’t use them all.  Toss

15)  CUTTING HUMOR  ML 30-1  He qualified for the KD with his Victory in the Sunland Derby over ANOTHERTWISTAFATE, a horse that a lot of experts held in high regard.  He is likely to Win more races in his career, just not here, too much talent to compete with.  Toss

16)  WIN WIN WIN  ML 30-1  When he made up ground in the Keeneland stretch to get second behind VEKOMA in the Blue Grass Stakes, he was racing against a real front end bias that aided the Winner.  Previously, he also set a track record in the seven-furlong Pasco Stakes at Tampa Bay DownsWIN WIN WIN is more of a closer than a stalker, and will have the chance to pass a lot of tired horses in The Derby.  Live Long-Shot To Win

17)  COUNTRY HOUSE  ML 30-1  He won’t physically be three years old until May 8th. So it is likely he will make some noise later in the year.  You could give him a pass in the Arkansas Derby due to the sloppy track, although he did finish a non-threatening third when he passed horses that weren’t a factor.  He’ll have long odds in The Derby, but once again, you can’t use them all.  Toss  

18)  GRAY MAGICIAN  ML 50-1  He shows just a Maiden Victory at Santa Anita against a field of six.  In his only American Derby Prep, he ran fourth in the Sham Stakes (G3) to open the year.  If the Winner of the UAE Derby gets no consideration here, then neither does the runner-up.  Toss

19)  SPINOFF  ML 30-1  He had the lead in the stretch of the Louisiana Derby only to be passed by the Winner, BY MY STANDARDS.  He fits the current popular running style in The Derby as a stalker who has shown some early speed at times…but Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez who has been on SPINOFF in his last three races opted to ride CODE OF HONOR instead.  Use Underneath 

20)  MASTER FENCER  ML 50-1  It’s too bad that a horse such as SIGNALMAN, who would have a legit shot in this KD will miss his chance because this guy gets in the field from Japan- where the top two qualifiers took a pass.  He is the third best they have to offer, has not Won a Stakes Race and should not be considered as a possibility in any kind of Derby Wager.  Heave

Next time out the Daily Racing Blog will try and make some sense out of this wide open Kentucky Derby and offer up how we’re going to Wager on the “Most Exciting Two Minutes In Sports”.  Feel free to let us in on any insights you might have, and share with us who you like, and why.

2 thoughts on “Derby Field Part II

  1. Early speed this year? Maximum Security’s pace at Fla Derby wouldn’t have been a bullet work at Finger Lakes for chrissake. Will he be able to jump out and steal another or are there a couple horses that can press him?

    Will you be performing the public service of the annual “chicken bones/voodoo” analysis” this week? I understand some people actually put some stock into that Dosage nonsense, go figure.

    Good stuff, can’t wait for the picks. There’s money to be made this week!!
    🏇🏇💰💰💰💰🏇. 🍻

    Like

    1. MAXIMUM SECURITY will not rock the other horses to sleep on the lead this Saturday. And yes, I do have the pedigree report on all the horses in the field. The Daily Racing Blog will be doing another segment on the Jerry Sullivan Radio Show this Friday at 11:10, so be sure to listen to the live stream at 1270 The Fan in Buffalo, NY. Luke warm favorites make for BIG paydays !

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