The 150th edition of the Kentucky Derby is Saturday. The Kentucky Derby is the most famous horse race in the United States and has become a cornerstone event in American culture.
The Winner of the Kentucky Derby each year becomes the only horse eligible to Win the prestigious Triple Crown, a three-race series for 3-year-olds that also includes the Preakness and Belmont Stakes.
Hence, Winning the Kentucky Derby is the pinnacle of achievement for most people who participate in the sport, and a full field is expected for the race on Saturday.
All that said, let’s jump right to it. who Wins the 2024 Kentucky Derby? SIERRA LEONE and FIERCENESS will be 1 and 2 in the betting pools, with FIERCENESS coming off his dominant Florida Derby Victory, likely being the Post Time favorite.
But, as most years, this Derby shapes up to be a great betting race and a formidable puzzle for horseplayers. And as regular readers are aware, the Daily Racing Blog is always looking for Value and the Kentucky Derby is no different. Therefore, hence, ergo we give you three other horses to consider for the top spot:
4. CATCHING FREEDOM [ML 8-1] Jockey: Flavien Pratt. Trainer: Brad Cox. While FIERCENESS and SIERRA LEONE have captured much of the attention heading into Derby 150 as the probable Post-Time favorites, this accomplished colt has been preparing somewhat under the radar. His best speed figures are a cut below that pair, but overall, CATCHING FREEDOM is a solid Derby contender if he can move forward from his final Derby prep.
He comes to the Derby off of a last-to-first rallying victory in the Louisiana Derby in March. Prior to that Win, he finished 3rd behind SIERRIA LEONE and TRACK PHANTOM in the Risen Star Stakes in February. He also has another two-turn Stakes Win in the Smarty Jones Stakes and on Derby day CATCHING FREEDOM will have the services of jockey Flavien Prat, who has finished in the top three with five of his six prior Kentucky Derby starters. Look for this colt to make his presence felt in the final sixteenth of a mile if he gets a clean trip.
8. JUST A TOUCH [ML 10-1] Jockey: Florent Geroux. Trainer: Brad Cox. Here you have a lightly raced Kentucky Derby contender, having made three starts, all coming earlier this year. In that respect, he follows in line of his sire JUSTIFY, who brought a 3-for-3 record to the 2018 Kentucky Derby and Won commandingly to set up a sweep of the Triple Crown. JUST A TOUCH, on the other hand, is 1-for-3, his Win coming in a six-furlong sprint back in January, followed by back-to-back runner-up efforts in Kentucky Derby preps.
He rallied late to nab 2nd in the one-mile Gotham in early March, and then in his two-turn debut, he took the lead in early stretch of the Blue Grass Stakes in April but could not hold off a late rally from SIERRA LEONE and settled for 2nd, finishing 1 ½ lengths behind that foe.
With only three starts under his belt, this colt has plenty of untapped potential – and if he can muster a career-best race on Saturday, he’s got a chance to finish in the top three at good odds. Jockey Florent Geroux, who’s been aboard for all of his prior starts, stays in the irons and should have his mount forwardly placed early in the Derby and in position to challenge the leaders around the far turn.
11. FOREVER YOUNG [ML 10-1] Jockey: Ryusei Sakai. Trainer: Yoshito Yahagi. The narrative in regard to this colt heading into Derby 150 begins with the awful record of horses who competed in the UAE Derby that go on to run on the first Saturday in May: zero top-three finishes from 19 starters. That bit of history however, should be followed up by this colt’s impressive accomplishments over the past seven months: a perfect 5-for-5 record and Wins in the Boutique Group Saudi Derby and the UAE Derby in his two prior starts to the Kentucky Derby.
Both of those Wins came in the Middle East after FOREVER YOUNG shipped there from his native Japan, where he dominated local opposition in three starts last year at age 2. His Win in the UAE Derby March 30th was especially encouraging, as he raced wide throughout most of the 1 3/16-mile race but still managed to finish powerfully to score by two lengths. Obviously, the level of competition he’ll face on Derby day will be turned up several notches.
There have been buzz horses shipping in from Dubai in recent past Derbys – DERMA SOTOGAKE last year and THUNDER SNOW in 2017 resonate– and it’s safe to say that FOREVER YOUNG is among that highly regarded group. Granted, he will need to elevate his game to a new high in the Kentucky Derby to have a shot at pulling the upset, but that’s why they run the race.
Best of luck regardless of how you play the Derby, and enjoy the day.
