Derby Talk

The 2024 Road to the Kentucky Derby actually began in 2023- September 16th at Churchill Downs and ended last weekend at Keeneland with the Lexington Stakes. The Derby trail consisted of 36 prep races that carried qualifying points.

With a mere 16 days until the Run for the Roses it was determined that 40 is the number of points required to get in the starting gate. At this time last year, the number was 46.

During the points era, which began in 2013, there were clear trends from the 11 horses that crossed the finish line in front. These statistics include MEDINA SPIRIT and MAXIMUM SECURITY, who were each disqualified from their respective 1st-place finishes.

Eight of the Winners prepped for the Derby with a Victory in a 100-point race. Four were in the Florida Derby, two in the Santa Anita Derby and one each in the Arkansas Derby and the Blue Grass Stakes.

Only three of eleven Kentucky Derby Winners since 2013 have rallied from far back to Win, ORB in 2013 and last two years with MAGE and RICH STRIKE. The other eight were either front runners or stalkers, and none of the eight were ever farther back than 3rd-place.

The favorite has lost in the last five editions of the Kentucky Derby, but from 2013 to 2018 six favorites in a row crossed the wire first with odds ranging from 2-1 to 5-1.

The projected field, as it currently stands will have the full Derby field of 20 horses. The draw for Post Positions has been moved up this year and will take place Saturday April 27th at Churchill Downs.

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